Although it is too early to predict about the political landscape in NWFP, yet the forthcoming polls may result in a coalition government in the province.
Just foreseeing the post polls scenario, one cannot deny that presence of two former prime ministers Banzir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif in electioneering, their parties would hopefully be securing more seats than the 2002 elections. The former stronghold of Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), NWFP would be witnessing Awami National Party, PML(N), PPPP as major emerging political parties.
MMA had clean swept in the province securing 29 out of 35 National Assembly seats and 68 out of 124 Provincial Assembly seats in 2002, but due split the religious parties alliance would be over shadowed by major political parties.
PML(N) is expected to clean sweep Hazara Division as it has always been its stronghold. In the absence of Nawaz Sharif, the field was open for PML(Q) to score maximum seats in Hazara but it would be hard for this party to maintain its record of the 2002 elections.
Now with the return of Nawaz Sharif and announcement of his party's contesting the 2008 general elections, he is likely to bag major share out of 21 PS and 7 NA seats in Hazara Division. The MMA is likely to suffer more as the announcement of boycott by Jammat-e-Islami (JI) is sure to have its repercussions and is not a good omen for the alliance.
With the electioneering momentum gearing up, the NWFP has captured attention and is the center stage due to the prevailing law and order situation in the province. The stalwarts and heads of various parties are contesting from NWFP including Aftab Sherpao, Maulana Fazalur Rehman, Asfandyar Wali Khan, Amir Muqam, Humayun Siafullah Khan, Ghulam Ahmed Bilour and Iqbal Zafar Jhagra.
The contestants also include three formers Chief Ministers of the Province Sardar Mehtab Abbasi, Pir Sabir Shah and Akram Khan Durrani. Qazi Hussain Ahmad and Maulana Sami-ul-Haq are out of the race following their boycott announcement. Provincial President PPP, Rahimdad Khan claims that PPPP has roots in the province and would win the elections.
"We have strong roots across the province. We have a clear agenda and people will vote for us," he said, reiterating commitment to steer country out of problems like extremism. He said, PPPP is likely to forge alliance with PML(N) in Hazara Division and in some areas with the independent candidates.
Brushing aside the impression of the possibility of low turn out in NWFP due to the security reasons, Rahimdad Khan said, people would take interest in the elections and cast votes for their better future. The participation of the maximum number of people in the elections would discourage the fundamentalists and thwart their nefarious designs, he maintained.
"People are fed up with the hollow slogans and want to see a strong government that could resolve their problems," he added. Former interior minister and Head of PPP(S), Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao also foresee political alliances in post election scenario.
"It would be a solo flight for the political parties in NWFP but post election alliances are expected in the province," Sherpao said, adding, no single party would emerge as triumphant. He said that his party could enter into alliance with parties that believe in the provincial autonomy and are fighting for the rights of Pakhtuns.
JUI Ameer and MMA Secretary General, Maulana Fazlur Rehman claimed that JUI(F) would grab most of the seats in the Provincial Assembly in the up-coming polls. He said that segregation of Jamaat-e-Islami would not have much effect on the vote bank of JUI(F) as there are no reports from any where in the province in this regard so far. Regarding seat adjustment of JUI(F) in D I Khan, Fazalur Rehman said, his party has been allowed to make adjustments at local level with other political parties.
He said, JUI(F) has entered into an alliance with provincial leader of PPP(S), Mukhdum Murid Kazim in his constituency (NA 24) whereas alliances would shortly emerge with other parties at the local level.
Senator Salim Saifullah Khan, Central PML Leader opines that MMA would be the major loser in the coming elections keeping in view their bad performance during the last five years. He said that MMA has disappointed people and did not deliver much for resolving masses problems and it would suffer a major defeat in the January 8 elections.
Saifullah said that his party has entered into an alliance with the PML(N) in district Lakki Marwat, adding that coalition government would be formed in NWFP and no party would gain single majority. President Awami National Party, Asfandyar Wali Khan said that he did not believe in political predictions, however, he claimed that ANP would win majority of seats in NWFP.
Regarding alliances, he said, ANP has not reached into alliance at the district and provincial level with any political party. However, the provincial leadership of the party would make decision in this connection.
Provincial General Secretary PML(N), Anwar Kamal termed ANP's coalition as decisive factor in formation of government in NWFP and said, PML(N) would contest on 85 PA seats out of the 99 and would win maximum seats in Hazara Division.
He said that the prospects of PML(N) are very bright with the return of its leadership as the graph of MMA has gone considerably down for their failure in implementing its manifesto.
Anwar Kamal predicted, if PPP succeeds in forming alliance with ANP it would form government in NWFP and the similar would be the case for PML(N). He said that political alliances would be formed after the elections and at this stage the field is wide open and seat adjustments have been allowed at local level prior to the elections.
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