FRANKFURT: Only 30 percent of German industrial players expect electricity prices to keep rising in 2012, while 70 percent believe they will be stable, ZEW's bi-annual energy prices survey showed on Tuesday.
In the last poll of 200 companies in Europe's biggest economy six months ago, 47 percent of those surveyed expected prices to rise in 2012.
"This assessment tallies with stable prognoses for primary energy sources in the world market," said Nikolas Woelfing, energy researcher at the Mannheim, Germany-based institute, known for its business sentiment indicators for the economy.
"According to this line, an increase of power prices up to year-end is unlikely," he said.
European wholesale power prices monitored by Reuters are currently near 20-month-lows, having been undermined by easing demand due to the euro zone crisis and additional renewable energy capacity.
The price of Germany's benchmark calendar year 2013 baseload contract for round-the-clock supply next year, at 47.80 euros ($58) per megawatt hour (MWh), has fallen by 9 percent this year.
The companies surveyed by ZEW were active in energy-intensive trade and manufacturing and in local energy distribution.
Some 75 percent of those polled believed oil prices would be steady or lower in the coming six months while coal prices would remain unchanged. Some 65 percent believed gas prices would be stable.
Looking at five years ahead, a majority of those surveyed predicted higher energy prices.
They cited higher global demand for oil, gas and coal and rising costs related to a move towards more renewable energy.
Apart from those main fuel inputs that have an impact on power prices, related carbon emissions rights prices were seen falling not just over the next six months but also over the coming five years.
Half of all respondents believed that carbon prices would not rise above 10 euros a tonne again this year. December 2012 expiry carbon currently costs 7.21 euros.
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