Does Pakistan’s Covid mortality offer hope?

Some media commentators term the idea of finding hope in mortality rate “insensitive”. Others rubbish the idea of finding hope in relatively lower mortality versus other countries, and instead insist on focusing on how every other day Pakistan reports “record” cases and deaths. There are those claiming vindication of stances, on weekly trends, toeing “I-told-you-so”. Others have held on too long on the first formed view, as if giving up on an earlier stance is a matter of ego.

It makes more sense for a situation as evolving as Covid, to also hold views that can change with the situation. Rigidity is not an option. It is not black and white between lockdown and no lockdown. It is not either or. It appears the federal government’s focus has moved on from number of positive cases to hospitalization ratio and deaths.

Asad Umar invited ire when he drew heart from Pakistan’s visibly slower mortality rate as compared to other countries. He was not entirely wrong in doing that. While the more medical and technical aspects are best left to the experts, analyzing trends does not necessarily need a medicine expert. Whichever way you decide to take a look, Pakistan’s situation does indicate a much better situation, than most others with higher deaths reported than Pakistan.

Days taken for doubling of deaths is considered a key indicator of growth rate. Pakistan has the lowest (or the best) doubling death rate at 450 deaths (Pakistan’s number on May 3) alongside Philippines, Romania and Poland (see map).

In terms of total deaths since fifth reported death, at day 41, Pakistan has the lowest number of deaths amongst all countries at this stage. This sure is a heartening piece of statistic, especially given the fragile state of healthcare infrastructure at home, which can crumble at anything even close to resembling overburden.

That said, the daily death curve is still rising and looks days behind peak. Even in a rising curve, there is hope. Hope that is relative, but hope, nonetheless. Pakistan’s daily deaths since the first day of five daily deaths reported, are considerably lower than any other country to have reached the mark of 27 days at least.

More hope could be drawn from the curve of countries ahead in terms of number of days since five daily deaths. The curve usually seems to be bending in some cases, and flattening in others, around 35-40 days. Pakistan is less than two weeks away from that period. Should Pakistan’s death rate keep showing the kind of resistance it has, the peak may well be seen earlier than was previously expected.

Hope, by no means should lead to complacency or chest thumping. Simultaneous efforts to test, trace and test, alongside beefing up healthcare facilities and improving workplace SOPs must continue. The pandemic has offered Pakistan a rare chance to show the world that it still has the resolve to come out victorious.