Economic Survey 2018-19: CPI witnesses rising trend during 2018-19 financial year

The Consu-mers Price Index (CPI) witnessed a rising trend during the current financial year of 2018-19 as it increased from 5.8 percent in July 2018 to 9.4 percent in March 2019 and was recorded at 8.8 percent in April 2019, Pakistan Economic Survey 2018-19 revealed.
CPI increased to 5.8 percent in July 2018 and after remaining at 5 percent during the following two months increased to 6.8 percent in October 2018. The spike witnessed in October 2018 was due to increase in gas prices. The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) revised the retail prices of natural gas for various consumers after keeping them unchanged for about two years. The substantial increase of 9.4 percent in CPI was witnessed in March 2019 while in April 2019 it was recorded at 8.8 percent.
During July-April FY 2019 headline inflation measured by CPI averaged at 7.00 percent against 3.77 percent during the corresponding period of the last year on the back of the prevalence of some underlying demand in the economy as well as depreciation of Pakistani rupee against the US dollar and higher fuel prices. Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) remained at 4.0 percent during Jul-April FY 2019 against 0.8 percent during the corresponding period of last year. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) recorded at 11.7 percent in July-April FY 2019 compared to 2.8 percent in corresponding period of FY 2018. Core inflation, which is non-food and non-energy, registered at 8.1 percent compared to 5.6 percent of corresponding period of FY 2018. The rising input costs on the back of high utility prices and the lagged impact of exchange rate depreciation are likely to maintain upward pressure on inflation during the remaining period of the current fiscal year. The impact will be more visible on non-food prices, however food prices would rise due to higher transport costs due to depreciation of the rupee and the rise in the international price of petroleum and products.