The main west European Union wheat exporters face an uphill struggle to win sales against cheaper rivals in the Baltics and Black Sea regions, but a fall in French prices this week could boost sales, traders said on Thursday. "The Baltic states of Lithuania and Latvia had good harvests this summer and have large export supplies which are being offered very cheaply in export markets," one German trader said.
"Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are together expected to export about 3 million tonnes more than they did last season after decent harvests this year, I think this will be taken off the EU's export total." European wheat futures in Paris hit contract lows on Wednesday as low prices in an Algerian wheat purchase tender underlined stiff export competition.
The EU's largest exporter France is being challenged by the Baltic region in its traditional markets such as Algeria. "For the moment, from July to September, it's Black Sea countries (dominating export sales) then Baltic wheat from mid-September through November," one French trader said. "We are at the back of the pack." But the drop in Paris prices this week could help struggling French sales, with aggressive French offers made in a wheat tender from Egypt.
"The euro is a key factor," Strategie Grains analyst Andre Defois said. "If we go back (from $1.11-$1.12) to $1.09, $1.10, we lose $6 per tonne immediately which is quite significant in terms of competitiveness." The second largest exporter Germany is also suffering from Baltic competition. Lithuanian and Latvian 12.5 percent protein milling wheat for September shipment was being offered for sale at around 9 euros under the Paris December wheat contract, traders said.
German 12 percent protein wheat for September delivery in Hamburg was offered at even the Paris December contract. "Germany cannot compete against that sort of price competition and we may have to wait until the Baltic States sell some of their inventories out before we can expect big new sales," one German trader said. Britain will harvest a slightly smaller wheat crop this year but export availability will be boosted by higher stocks.
"It should be a relatively robust level of supply," said Jack Watts, lead analyst for cereals and oilseeds at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. "One of the key challenges will the currency because the vast majority of our wheat goes into the eurozone." Sterling rose to its strongest level against the euro in over 7 years in July and although it has since fallen back the currency remains well above year earlier levels.
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