Power loadshedding is expected to increase dramatically across the country from December 25, 2014 onwards due to routine annual closure of canals resulting in a loss of 2000 MW electricity generated from hydel sources, well-informed sources told Business Recorder.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, sources said, has convened a meeting on Monday in which all issues related to power sector, including the recovery of receivables, circular debt, PSO's power sector receivables, current status of subsidy and generation arrangements during canal closure will be discussed.
The source said outflows from Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs from current level of 40,000 cusecs each will reduce to 5000 cusecs each from December 25.
"Today [Saturday] outflows from Mangla and Tarbela reservoirs are 40,000 cusecs each which will lower to 5000 cusecs each. The situation, therefore, implies 70,000 cusecs will not be available for power generation for one month at least. This duration can be extended on the request of provincial governments," the sources added.
At present, hydel generation from Mangla, Tarbela and is around 2250 MW which will come down to 250 MW after a massive reduction in outflows.
An official claimed that the currently power generation is around 10,000 MW against a demand of 12,500 MW, showing a shortfall of 2500 MW.
According to the official, loadshedding duration in rural and urban areas is of 8 hours and 6 hours, respectively, which implies that with the start of canal closure for annual maintenance load shedding will rise.
However, Additional Secretary Incharge Ministry of Water and Power, Younas Dagha told Business Recorder that all furnace oil-fired power plants, including Gencos, will be run in January 2014 as per previous practice.
Asked if the government would operate Gencos which are considered very expensive plants, he replied in the affirmative: "Yes, we can't otherwise make up for hydel power which will be very low during canal closure season".
According to sources, if the government decides to divert 85 MMCFD gas of most efficient 412 MW Rousch power plant to the textile sector and operate it on furnace oil, total power generation cost of December and January will also increase manifold.
According to sources, Pepco will request Pakistan State Oil (PSO) to sufficiently increase the quantum of daily dispatches to Gencos and IPPs so that furnace oil stocks are built up at respective power stations to ensure at least 15 days of continuous operation of power units to meet the load requirement during winter months.
Power sector, sources said, has to pay Rs 100 billion of PSO which will now use winter season as a tool to get yet another bailout package from the government to ensure furnace oil supply for power generation.
"PSO has already defaulted on international and local L/Cs to the tune of Rs 45 billion. PSO is financially crippled and on the verge of collapse," said an official of PSO on condition of anonymity.
Another official told Business Recorder that generation-demand shortfall will widen from the last week of December 2014 till end of January 2015 due to a canal closure.
The government saved Rs 20 billion in November 2014 by running the most efficient power plants and passed the benefit on to consumers.
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