Indonesia's refined tin exports will come in as much as 10,000 tonnes below forecast this year, industry groups said, and its latest clampdown on exports is likely to hinder shipments from the world's top exporter into the first quarter of 2015. That could be enough to tips the finely balanced global market back into deficit.
Indonesia's government made changes to tin export rules from November 1, in an effort to close loopholes, halt illegal mining and give it greater control over prices. Southeast Asia's biggest economy was widely expected to ship about 80,000 tonnes this year but, after November exports slumped to the lowest level since April 2007, this is now likely to fall to 75,000 tonnes, said Jabin Sufianto, president of the Indonesian Association of Tin Exporters (AETI). "There is still a possibility that we could end up at 75,000 this year," Sufianto said. "It is possible that we see 70,000 or below next year."
Indonesia's refined tin exports were 65,607 tonnes between January and November, compared with about 90,000 tonnes for the whole of last year. Monthly exports are expected to get back to normal at the average 7,500-8,000 tonnes by March next year, industry sources added.
Industry group ITRI said last month that the global tin market was expected to fall into a deficit of 5,000 to 10,000 tonnes in 2015 from a balanced market this year. "It looks like the (2015) forecast has come true a year early," Peter Kettle, markets manager at ITRI, told Reuters in an email, commenting on the AETI's previous 70,000 tonnes estimate for Indonesia next year. Indonesia has made several attempts to support the benchmark price of the solder material in recent years. The price has fallen 8 percent this year to around $20,460 a tonne.
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