MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed on Thursday amid a decline in US and Asian equities, while market participants awaited the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at 83.94-83.96 to the US dollar compared with 83.9550 in the previous session.
Asian shares declined following the intraday reversal in US equities.
Shares in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea lost up to 0.8%.
Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed after the index declined on Wednesday.
At one point through Wednesday’s session, the key US equity index was up more than 1.5%.
Risk appetite “remains shaky” and “you just feel there is a lot of nervousness over what comes next”, a currency trader at a bank said.
The dollar/rupee pair should remain well bid through this with “84 unmistakably the level to watch.”
The trader added that the RBI will “be of interest” to the rupee forwards market and not much to the spot.
All economists surveyed by Reuters expect India’s central bank to keep key policy rate at 6.50% and only a handful of economists are forecasting a change in stance.
The main focus will be on the comments on liquidity, which right now is in sizeable surplus.
Asian peers mixed
Asian currencies were mixed on the day with the Japanese yen inching up slightly to 146.50 to the US dollar.
The volatility on the yen, spurred possibly by the unwinding of carry trades, has been a worry for world markets.
Indian rupee ends moderately higher
The yen volatility has raised alarm, MUFG Bank said in a note, pointing out that the excessive volatility has led to a tweak in the Bank of Japan’s narrative, with a key central bank official pledging that the central bank will not raise the policy rate when markets are disorderly.
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