NEW YORK: US natural gas futures fell about 3% to a one-week low on Friday on forecasts for less demand this week and next than previously expected and signs the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was down a bit.
Other factors weighing on prices this week have included expectations supplies will soon rise now that the Mountain Valley gas pipeline has entered service and news that price increases in May prompted EQT, the nation’s biggest gas producer, to start boosting output.
Front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.8 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $2.881 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since June 6.
That put the front-month down about 1% this week after it gained about 13% last week.
The futures price decline occurred despite forecasts for hotter weather through the end of June that should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.
In Mexico, US energy company New Fortress Energy delayed the production of first LNG at its Altamira export plant again. The company now say it will produce first LNG over the next 10 days and send out the first LNG cargo in July.
Last month, the company said it would produce first LNG in May and send out the first cargo in June. Since New Fortress plans to use US gas to supply the plant, it should boost demand for US gas once it starts operating by increasing US exports to Mexico.
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 US states fell to an average of 97.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from 98.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was on track to ease by around 0.9 bcfd to a preliminary 97.5 bcfd on Friday. That, however, was up from a one-month low of 96.6 bcfd on Tuesday and a 15-week low of 96.5 bcfd on May 1.
Before recent output declines in June, analysts said increases in May were a sign producers were slowly boosting output after a 47% jump in futures prices in April and May. Output hit a six-week high of 99.5 bcfd on May 24.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least June 29.
LSEG forecast that heat would boost gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, from 94.7 bcfd this week to 97.3 bcfd next week and 102.2 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next, however, were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Thursday.
Gas flows to the seven big US LNG export plants, meanwhile, rose to 13.1 bcfd so far in June, up from 12.9 bcfd in May.
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