MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is set to open lower on Friday after fresh data showed that US inflation was proving sticky, prompting investors to dial back expectations on Federal Reserve’s rate cuts this year.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at 82.94-82.96 to the US dollar compared with its previous close of 82.8175.
“It appears we will have quite a decent up move on USD/INR in the context that how muted the opening usually is,” a currency trader at a bank said.
“This return to near-83 will take a lot of people by surprise, and there will be a run to manage positions,” the trader added.
Following the higher-than-expected US producer price index (PPI) print, investors have scaled back expectations on Fed rate cuts this year to 75 basis points.
Indian rupee likely to resume uptrend despite rising US Treasury yields
This is in-line with what the US central bank’s December dot plot had indicated. US yields jumped, equities declined and the dollar index rose.
The PPI reading came on the back of data that showed US consumer price index (CPI) in February rose more than expected.
The January CPI data too had surprised on the upside. Following the CPI prints in January and February, the PPI data renewed fears of sticky inflation, signalling that cost pressures for firms have picked up, ANZ said in a note.
The US jobless claims data further contributed to expectations that the Fed may hold rates higher for longer.
US initial jobless rose 209,000, lower than the 218,000 expected, reinforcing the US labour market’s resilience. The Korean won led losses in broader Asian FX, down nearly 1% while Hong Kong shares led Asian equities lower.
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