NAPERVILLE, (Illinois): After a couple years of more corn-favoring levels, Chicago soyabean futures have notched their strongest advantage relative to corn since late 2016, suggesting that soya supply concerns are outpacing those of corn.
That price difference in 2016 arguably led to the overproduction of US soyabeans in the following two years, moderating soyabean futures. Next year’s prices show soyabeans topping corn to a slightly larger degree than in 2016, possibly laying some bearish groundwork for 2024. CBOT soyabeans’ price-supportive 2023 story started with significantly lighter-than-expected US soyabean plantings, continuing with the exceptionally dry June weather. Beans again found strength this month with a yield-limiting dry stretch late in the growing season.
In the last three weeks, CBOT November soyabeans have risen 6.6%, though December corn has lost 2.4%. That pushed the soyabean-corn ratio to a seven-year high of 2.86 on Tuesday.
The CBOT bean-corn ratio, often used to indicate the crops’ relative profitability for US farmers prior to the growing season, typically averages 2.47 during August. By contrast, the year-ago ratio was a highly corn-favouring 2.1, the date’s lowest since 2011.
2016 sets the recent historical limit for late August at around 3.0, and 2009 was the only higher year, staying just below 3.1. The US corn and soyabean crops were huge in both years, but soyabean demand was booming, especially from China in 2016.
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