LONDON: The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Thursday upwardly revised its forecast for a global cocoa deficit in the current 2021/22 season (October-September) to 230,000 tonnes, driven partly by a reduced outlook for output in Ghana.
The inter-governmental body had previously forecast there would be a global deficit of 174,000 tonnes.
The ICCO, in a quarterly update, cut its forecast for global production in 2021/22 by 33,000 tonnes to 4.89 million tonnes.
Ghana’s production was seen at 689,000 tonnes, down sharply from a previous forecast of 800,000 tonnes.
Ivory Coast and Ghana are the world’s top two cocoa producers, together accounting for around 60% of global supply.
“The drastic decline in Ghana’s cocoa production is the key driver of the current season’s global supply shortfall,” the ICCO said in its report.
Upward revisions to the production outlooks for Cameroon (290,000 tonnes v 280,000), Nigeria (280,000 vs 270,000), Brazil (220,000 vs 210,000) and Peru (160,000 vs 150,000) helped to partially offset the downgrade to Ghana’s crop.
The ICCO maintained its forecast for production in Ivory Coast at 2.2 million tonnes.
Global grindings in 2021/22 were seen at 5.07 million tonnes, up 23,000 tonnes from the ICCO’s previous forecast.
“Cocoa demand has held up on multiple fronts despite rising input costs, including high energy costs, supply chain issues and increases in interest rates among others,” the ICCO said.
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