Becoming ungovernable?

Pakistan’s current moment of political transition meets even growing number of challenges than the last time. Shehbaz Sharif, the next PM, has a mountain to climb in the eighteen months he has got until scheduled elections late next year. Who would really want to be in his shoes? Soon the new government may also start complaining how things were left worse by the previous one. Let’s see if Shehbaz, who has had significant governance experience in Punjab, is more action than talk at the federal level.

Overall, it is apparent that the country is becoming harder to govern amid negative circumstances piling up. In this downward spiral, whoever forms the next government, and the one following that, will naturally be dealt a bad hand. There are structural, behavioral and economic fault-lines that need to be addressed, so that those who govern can feel more in control and those who are in the opposition (and their supporters) can feel included. It is easier said than done, and Shehbaz and co. need to be prepared.

First, there is the fundamental question of dialing down current elevated level of political instability that has gripped Pakistan in recent years. While Shehbaz has offered to work with opposition and ruled out political vendetta against PTI (let’s see if he follows through on his promises), it appears that Imran Khan is not in the mood to allow the new government to operate. Branding the new government “imported,”the PTI has refused to accept it. Instability may only grow after their reported mass resignations.

Second, the economy may become an even bigger casualty if the current political trends are not reversed. As this cycle of delegitimizing every new government continues (“rigged” in 2013; “selected” in 2018; and now “imported” in 2022), it may undermine the new government’s credibility with the public, thus depleting political capital for economic reforms that cost now but benefit much later. Narrative battles in the media will also divert government from addressing the pressing economic challenges on hand.

Third, the divisiveness in the public sphere may become even more intense, as the PTI, which commands swathes of voters especially among the vocal urban middle-class demographics, has chosen to not give the new government a chance. The PTI voters now occupy the space PML-N voters had since 2018 elections. Being unable to jam the wheels of the government, aggrieved partisans will still pay taxes, send home the remittances, and obey the traffic light. But arguments and hostilities won’t be waning soon!

Fourth, the limited room for governance is made even more acute by the rise of religious right. The likes of TLP have phenomenal faith-based street power, against which law enforcement authorities tend to melt faster than ice-cream in sunshine. TLP, which alone blocked major cities at least three times in PTI’s term, is just one offense away from taking it to the roads again and teaching the Shehbaz government a lesson.TLP, which is a political party as well, may become more troublesome as elections approach.

And fifth, the country’s diplomacy (which is a confused mix of standing up for ideological causes while being in a perennial haste to secure bilateral foreign loans and deposits to stave off balance of payment crises) has been left even little room for maneuver after the PTI’s allegations of the United States forcing regime change in Pakistan. Re-engaging with friendly and neutral countries after this diplomatic melee is an added challenge for the Shehbaz government, with profound consequences for economic sovereignty.

At this fragile moment, what the ailing economy, schismatic politics and dispiritedsections of society require is a grand bargain among political parties and institutions. There is a need to forge consensus on following basic rules of the game and undertaking much-needed economic and political reforms. Shehbaz is now in the hot seat, and it is his job to convince other stakeholders for a national consensus on economic and political reforms. Will he succeed? Well, the odds look stacked against him at the moment.