It’s bad enough to have a full-blown political crisis amidst heightened macroeconomic vulnerabilities – now there is added worry of getting caught in the crossfire of geopolitics of the moment. Is Pakistan about to become (if it hasn’t already become) a battleground state in the escalating rivalry between democratic powers in the West and autocratic regimes in the East? Or will this moment pass and let this country be?
The PTI’s narrative is simple and catchy: the no-confidence motion against their government was a result of the opposition’s collusion with foreign powers (read: United States) to punish Imran Khan’s “independent” foreign policy. It may or may not have a basis in facts, but publicly alleging “foreign conspiracy” in a purely domestic matter has thrown Pakistan’s decades-long diplomatic balance off kilter.
How is it playing out? Not so well! Pakistanis must know there is something wrong with their foreign policy when Russia, which is being sanctioned left, right and center for its brutal invasion and destruction of neighboring Ukraine, is getting diplomatic mileage out of deep political unrest in Pakistan. Earlier this week, Russia’s foreign ministry issued a statement on Pakistan’s political crisis, supporting “disobedient” Khan and condemning US for its alleged attempt for regime change in Pakistan. This is unprecedented!
Linking politicians with foreign machinations, without evidence or due process of the law, is akin to self-sabotage. It deprives swathes of voters from political representation, besides undermining public’s trust in their elected representatives. In addition, it harbors authoritarian tendencies among rulers as they can prolong their regime through such tactics. And critically, it threatens national security, as the country is painted into a corner, with friendly countries becoming distrustful and foes getting emboldened.
How will this turn out on the external front? While the practice of diplomatic coercion is not new, sitting PMs and Presidents barely publicize their country’s or party’s sharp differences with major powers, let alone allege foreign conspiracies to oust them. It was already difficult last month for Pakistan to manage diplomatic expectations from economic partners and long-time allies after Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now it’s a huge challenge to fix things on the diplomatic front. And apparently no one is in charge.
There is growing uncertainty in the business community: how will this episode affect Pakistan’s relationship with the US, which is a major buyer of Pakistan’s exports and a significant origin of its overseas remittances? Recent statements from top military leadership and opposition parties regarding preserving US-Pakistan relations may help. But will they be enough to wash with the US? This is the age of economic retaliation – the time may not be far enough when economic interests are seriously harmed.
At the risk of invoking an overused word of the times, is there an “off ramp” somewhere along this diplomatic highway? To get out of this hole, facts must first be ascertained through an independent, time-barred judicial inquiry. Yet, if Pakistan’s history of intrigues is any guide, hoping for truth to come out in an alleged foreign plot may be asking for too much. Instead, diplomatic space may become further reduced if anti-US/anti-West populist political messages are used in the next election. It begs the question: is the US losing Pakistan for good? Perhaps Uncle Biden should have just picked up his phone and called Khan!
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