EDITORIAL: Nearly 20 years after their ouster from power in Afghanistan the Taliban are back in power, defeating the Afghan armed forces supported by the mightiest-ever military machine and a government foreign-funded to the tune of a trillion dollar. The Taliban’s forefathers took almost half a year to capture Kabul, the seat of power, but it took their progeny only 10 days. Sadly mistaken are the analysts who had predicted an internecine civil war and fall of Kabul in no less than 90 days, and almost bloodless capture of all major cities. Leave it to historians to find out why the 300,000-strong armed up to the hilt Afghan National Army and closely supported by American air force and NATO military advisors crumbled as if this edifice was built on sand. But what by now we do know that the force’s numbers were fake and the Americans’ support was essentially in the air, while wars are won and lost by soldiers on the ground. And President Ashraf Ghani, who had promised to fight the Taliban till the last man and last bullet, fled to neighbouring Tajikistan, tweeting from there he did not want bloodshed in the capital city. But the second man in the system and head of Afghan National Reconciliation Council, Abdullah Abdullah, doesn’t think so: “The former president left Afghanistan leaving the country in this difficult situation. God should hold him accountable”. Now as the Taliban leaders are in talks with Abdullah Abdullah and others their fighters have been stopped from entering the city to ensure that life in the capital remains undisturbed. No doubt some kind of panic among the residents in Kabul is natural but no incident of violence has been reported from any part of the city. The only sign of the emerging scenario was smoke rising from the US embassy building where ‘secret papers’ were purportedly being burnt, — a normal practice in such situations. And the helicopters that flew out of the embassy compound didn’t have anyone hanging from the frame as was the case following the fall of Saigon to the People’s Army of Vietnam and Viet Cong on April 30, 1975. Now the question is how power would be transferred from the defeated administration to the victorious Taliban. Talks on the subject are in process. It is important to note that the Taliban are prepared for an all-inclusive Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and they have opposed the idea of an interim government.
However, smooth transition to power is not the end of the game; a host of formidable challenges are expected to test the Taliban’s competence to rule the country that for decades saw nothing but war. They have been already forewarned that recognition of their government would be contingent upon fair treatment of urban, educated citizens, vocal civil society, women, media and non-Sunni sects and ethnic groups. The world community would also watch how the Taliban government treats its erstwhile sponsor Al-Qaeda, and whether they will fight or coexist with banned outfits like Islamic State, Eastern Turkmenistan Islamic Movement and others, whose presence in large numbers in Afghanistan is no secret. Equally challenging for the Taliban government will be its relationship with Pakistan. Keeping in mind the birth of Taliban midwifed by Pakistan in 1994, quite a few analysts are certain that with Taliban in control Kabul-Islamabad relationship would be hunky-dory. And if over some years Pakistan has loudly claimed it has no favourite in the Afghan imbroglio it is more of posturing than reality, they add. But to the Pakistan government that was not the case. It has always advocated an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned solution to the conflict. But much depends how the Taliban government reacts to Pakistan’s stated position that the anti-Pakistan foreign-funded Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has safe havens in bordering districts of Afghanistan. A senior security official is reported to have claimed that Afghan Taliban and TTP are “two faces of the same coin”. Pakistan had rather hurriedly accorded recognition to the first Taliban government headed by Mulla Omar, but then it was essentially an intra-Afghan situation, which is not the case now. In the present case, however, the Afghan Taliban fought and defeated a government that was backed by a US-led international force, which is of the view that the recognition would follow only after the Taliban government behaves like a political government than opts for a system based on doctrinarism. To accord recognition to Taliban government Pakistan must be in step with international community.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2021
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