FPCCI panel opposes SBP’s keeping of monetary policy rate unchanged

LAHORE: Demanding competitive interest rate at neighboring countries’ level, the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry’s Businessmen Panel has opposed the central bank for keeping monetary policy rate unchanged at seven percent for the sixth time in row, despite declining inflation and positive economic growth.

FPCCI’s Businessmen Panel Chairman Mian Anjum Nisar observed that keeping key policy rate at seven percent doesn’t seem to be logical despite the fact that inflation has dropped to 8.9 percent amidst reduction in headline inflation and core inflation, which are expected to go down further.

He said the results of the cut in policy rate from 13.5 percent to seven percent are very positive in the form of 3.94 percent economic growth. He asked the SBP governor to fulfill his commitment of maintaining accommodative monetary stance in the near and long-term to support the rare recovery amid uncertain Covid-19 challenges.

Mian Anjum Nisar said that in view of the policy rates in neighboring countries Pakistan’s seven percent interest is very high, and its reduction is essential to make Pakistani exporting sector as well as the local industry competitive.

He said that after the Corona devastation, Pakistan should take advantage of those export orders canceled by the other regional countries. For this, the government will have to reduce production cost of the industries to avail this offer by the international buyers.

The BMP chairman and FPCCI former president said that future anticipated inflation would further decline due to low demand amidst the fourth wave of coronavirus. On the other hand, the external front is also presently sustainable due to foreign financial support and rescheduling of debt, he added.

He said that the central bank should announce an initiative related to loans for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), as the SME sector has to show collateral to banks, which are always reluctant to offer them concessional credit.

He termed the seven percent key policy rate as insufficient, especially in the extraordinary prospects amidst fear of worldwide trade and industrial lockdowns in fourth wave of pandemic.

He suggested to promote the present growth pace further growth in the industrial and service sectors through lowering of mark-up rate, as the economy is on track, with declining inflation and stability on external and domestic fronts.

He said that achievements in exports and stabilization of the economy through the monetary policy measures now require to sustain again by extending reduction in the policy rates so that the debt liability of the business sector is compensated through lower mark-up rate.

Mian Anjum Nisar said that the State Bank’s keeping the discount rate unchanged at seven percent is not understandable when it also expresses satisfaction over declining inflation and rising the growth, saying the risks to the outlook for both growth and inflation appeared balanced.

FPCCI former president, referring to the central bank reports, observed that most economic activity data and indicators of consumer and business sentiments have shown continued improvement.

On the inflation front, recent out-turns are also encouraging, suggesting a waning of supply-side price pressures from food. He said that inflation is expected to fall further within the previously announced range of 7-9 percent for FY22 and trend toward the 5-7 percent target range over the medium-term.

He said the trajectory of the Covid pandemic is difficult to predict, given still-elevated global cases, the emergence of new strains, and lingering uncertainties about the roll-out of vaccines worldwide.

The trade and industry need continued support from the government in the form of lower interest rate amidst such external shocks, he suggested.

He said that the manufacturing recovery is also becoming more broad-based, with 12 out of 15 sub-sectors registering positive growth and employment beginning to recover.

Mian Anjum Nisar said that the reduction in electricity tariff for SMEs would be the first step towards cut in production cost while the second and vital step toward this direction would be bringing discount rate to the regional level with a view to provide level-playing field especially to the export industry. The decision would have the same importance for the domestic industry too, as it has also been facing tough competition of cheaper imported merchandize in the country following FTAs with several countries, he added.

While appreciating the central bank’s role in sustaining economic growth through supporting trade and industry, he said that reduction in interest rate would be vital relief to the business community.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2021