Rise of populism in the post-Covid world

Populist sentiments seem to be resurfacing in the wake of Covid-19 as a virulent variant, Delta, spreads across many countries. Populism was a hot topic in world politics from 2017-2019 until the end of 2019 when the world got embroiled in epidemic fever.

The Covid-19 crisis in 2019 was unprecedented, rapid and mushroomed across the world as it was unexpected and sudden. It found a fertile ground in Europe when nearly 12-15 countries had populists running the government or in partnerships as allies.

Described by some as 'biblical proportions,' it has shaken the foundations of the world order and poses the biggest social, political, and economic challenge the world has faced since the end of WWII. Barring a few, most of world's autocracies and populist-nationalists have failed to rise to the occasion in controlling the epidemic; for example, in Brazil, President Bolsarno was dismissive initially about the seriousness of the virus but then perforce took preventive measures. The same could be said of US and India. Yet some of the liberal internationalist leaders have handled the crisis to date with relative authority, efficiency and humanity. Examples of New Zealand, Germany and Australia come to mind.

With an assortment of ultra-leftist and far-rightist groups, populism's main antecedents are traced to the 2008 financial crisis. Populists' views are basically anti-elite in disposition, against big business, corrupt political leaders, feckless intellectuals and profit-seeking business magnates. It holds them largely responsible for deepening of economic disparities, poverty, exploitation and maintenance of the status quo.

Populism springs from lack of faith in neo-liberal order and associated grievances emanating from the ailing economy with attendant ills of economic disparity: widening rich-poor gap, unfair distribution of medical facilities, corruption of all kinds, over-exploitation of natural resources, and economic hardship faced by the ordinary people. This loss of faith in democracy and democratic leaders poses a challenge to the world order.

Populism of the right and left varieties derives strength from skillful use of symbols and slogans by populist leaders - mostly xenophobic masquerading as ultra-nationalists. This genre of slogan had shaped and catalyzed the US populace when the then US President Donald Trump used the slogan: "Make America Great" and Boris Johnson cried: "Take back control: get Brexit done." These slogans led to their respective victories in national elections. These were about a nation's greatness and victimhood and wrapped around the nation-state, which is nationalism often of rabid and rallying kind. The nation state acted as in the past the main actor to galvanize nations and people. Both the so-called liberal and conservative populists are arguing on opposite sides of the spectrum by defending their respective positions.

When the coronavirus first started in 2020, the US was integrating the narrative on nationalism by terming the virus as the 'Chinese virus.' This tied with president Trump's ulterior policy of sealing borders, anti- immigration and anti- China policy.

While the developed world may be able to partially overcome the after-effects of the current pandemic, the developing nations would acutely suffer. Certain sectors will suffer loss of wages and employment, other sectors, including health-care and delivery workers might get again overstretched to risky levels. Scarcity of public health facilities, lesser trade, aid and investment will take a toll on economies. These may incubate geopolitical crises of all kinds. Further, distributional issues about the virus vaccine are already arising over the availability of vaccine.

It seems that the virus's crisis may be for a long haul. But the big challenge is: A response to the crisis will require massive expansion of social security support in many developing countries. Forecasting about the Covid-19 and populism is a bit too early. How the new variant takes hold depends on what is the governmental strategies to cope up, the nature of the virus, responses by the world bodies, how soon it lasts and how manufacture and supply of effective vaccine are available to mitigate the pandemic. Zoonotic viruses, in future, can be controlled by greater international research on viruses, changes in life style, broader regional and global cooperation, and creating prompt public health preparedness. Also, multilateral cooperation is important than ever.

Agreed that the populists have some genuine grievances against the ills of existing neo-liberal order and democratic systems; however they need to do more serious work in rectifying the weaknesses of the systemic malaise instead of sloganeering, scapegoating and conspiracy theories to attain power.

The post-Corona world should urgently aim at availing multilateralism, enlisting scientific expertise, launching indigenous research and ensuring fair distribution bodies and nations of medical supplies. Added to this is the need for massive expansion of national social security support. Furthermore, over the medium and long-term, there is imperative need for stronger collaboration with world bodies on hazards of climate change, ongoing terrorism, existing food shortages, cyber security and misuse of drugs need focus - that are now staring humanity.

(The writer has been Visiting Faculty, Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2021