Yuan hovers around one-month low, set for biggest weekly drop since Sept

SHANGHAI: China's yuan hovered around a one-month low against the dollar on Friday and looked set for its biggest weekly drop since September, pressured by a rebound in the greenback after the US Federal Reserve officials projected possible rate hikes earlier than expected.

Prior to the market opening, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate at 6.4361 per dollar, 63 pips or 0.1% weaker than the previous fix of 6.4298, the weakest since May 24.

In the spot market, onshore yuan opened at 6.4480 per dollar and eased to 6.4493, not far from a more than one-month low of 6.4498 hit a day earlier. By midday, it was changing hands at 6.4457, 33 pips firmer than the previous late session close.

If the spot yuan finishes the late night session by midday level, it would have lost 0.74% to the dollar for the week, the worst weekly performance since late September.

Traders said the recent weakness in the yuan was tracking a buoyant dollar as markets continued to digest the Fed's pivot to more hawkish rhetoric.

But against its major trading partners, the yuan continued to strengthen on Friday, with the CFETS index climbing to 98.19, according to Reuters calculations.

Market participants widely believe the 98-level could act as the ceiling for the index, as a breach of the level in late May prompted the central bank to raise the reserve requirement ratio on foreign exchange deposits for the first time in 14 years to rein in the yuan strength.

"The pushback may not be strong given the shift in macro dynamics, with Fed having put taper on the table," Citi analysts said in a note.

"The safe haven appeal of renminbi, idiosyncratic nature of its flow and relative outperformance to trading partners even as its interest rate differential with the US narrows may allow for greater policy comfort."

Meanwhile, some currency traders said market worries over Sino-US relations, a key factor weighing on the yuan over the last few years, resurfaced after Reuters reported that US President Joe Biden's executive order aimed at safeguarding Americans' sensitive data would force some Chinese apps to take tougher measures to protect private information.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said the "true test" this year would come over bilateral negotiations to replace the expiring Phase 1 trade deal.

"There is little indication that the Biden administration is preparing to take a harder line on US-China trade. Washington in fact is likely desirous of China committing to buying more US exports in order to support the domestic recovery," they said in a note.

By midday, the global dollar index fell to 91.845 from the previous close of 91.878, while the offshore yuan was trading at 6.4521 per dollar.