Fiscal deficit contained at 3.5 percent in 8 months

ISLAMABAD: Owing to the government’s efforts, the fiscal deficit during the first eight months (July-February) of the current fiscal year has been contained at 3.5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

“Despite higher mark-up payments and COVID-19 related expenditures, the fiscal sector continues to perform better as a result of the government's efforts to maintain fiscal discipline,” says Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for April 2021.

According to the report the first eight months of the current fiscal year witnessed an increase of 9.2 percent in net federal revenue receipts to reach Rs.2188 billion as compared to Rs.2003 billion last year.

The total expenditures grew by 1.3 percent to Rs.4132 billion during July-February, FY2021 as compared to Rs.4079 billion last year.

“Thus the fiscal deficit has been contained to 3.5 percent of GDP during July-February, FY2021,” the report adds.

On the other hand, the primary balance posted a surplus of Rs.286 billion during July-February, FY2021 as against the balance of Rs.104 billion last year.

Meanwhile, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) had been able to achieve double-digit growth in the first nine months of the current fiscal year and surpassed the target by more than Rs100 billion.

The provisional net collection grew by 10.9 percent to Rs.3395 billion during July-March, FY2021 against the collection of Rs.3060 billion last year.

Within the total, domestic tax collection grew by 10.7 percent, of which direct tax collection grew by 9.1 percent, sales tax 13.2 percent and Federal Excise Duty (FED) by 2.8 percent.

In March 2021 alone, the provisional net collection increased by 49.4 percent to Rs.481 billion as compared to the collection of Rs.322 billion in March 2020. For the month of March, the provisional net collection exceeded the target by Rs.114 billion.

On Monetary side, during July 1st to April 2, FY2021, Money Supply (M2) posted growth of 7.1 percent (Rs 1,475.1 billion) as compared to growth of 8.4 percent (Rs 1,485.3 billion last year).

Within Money Supply, Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of the banking system witnessed an expansion of Rs 695.3 billion against Rs 745.2 billion last year. On the other hand, Net Domestic Assets (NDA) increased by Rs 779.8 billion compared to Rs 740.1 billion last year.

The private sector credit posted an expansion of Rs 444.5 billion as compared to Rs 332.8 billion last year which can be considered a healthy sign for economic activities. Within loans to private sector business, working capital loans increased by Rs 120.4 billion during July-March, FY2021 as compared borrowing of Rs 192.5 billion during same period last year.

Demand for fixed investment loans has seen expansion of Rs 127.4 billion compared retirement of Rs 5.2 billion last year. Under subsidized schemes, Long Term Finance Facility (LTFF) loans witnessed expansion of Rs 110.4 billion as compared Rs 37.0 billion last year.

Under Export Finance Scheme (EFS), private sector credit increased by Rs 68.7 billion as compared Rs 109.2 billion last year. Fig – 7 represent monthly flows.

On account of 26.2 percent growth in Workers’ Remittances and 2.3 percent growth in exports, the Current Account posted a surplus of $ 959 million (0.5 percent of GDP) for July-March FY2021. It is worth mentioning that exports were recorded $ 2.6 billion in Mar 2021 ($ 1.8 billion last year) thus posting a growth of 43 percent YoY basis.

As per the data of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), during July– March (FY 2021) exports increased by 7.1 percent to $ 18.7 billion as compared to the exports of $ 17.4 billion last year.

The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in July-March FY2021was recorded at $ 1,395.0 million as compared to $ 2,150.3 million last year while total foreign portfolio investment registered an outflow of $ 265.2 million during July-March FY2021.

The country’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves increased to $23.2 billion on April 8, 2021. After July 5, 2017, the State Bank of Pakistan’s reserves now stood at $16.1 billion while commercial banks’ reserves remained $ 7.1 billion, the report says adding strong reserves will help in stabilizing exchange rate.

The Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM), measuring industrial activity, increased by nearly 4.9 percent in February 2021 on Year on year (YoY) basis. . During July-February FY 2021, LSM grew by 7.5 percent compared to negative growth of 2.8 percent last year.

Meanwhile, the report says that the government’s timely response mitigated the social and economic impact of the pandemic, among which the most mentionable were smart lockdowns, the Rs. 1.24 trillion stimulus packages, and the unprecedented concessions for the construction and SME sectors.

Although third wave of the pandemic has created concerns about economic prospects, however, with sharp rebound of LSM, consistent exports of over $ 2 billion since Oct 2020 and significant increase of worker remittances will help in due economic recovery.

Further entering into international capital market after a gap of over three years and raising $ 2.5 billion successfully has shown investors’ confidence on better prospects of the economy.

Going forward, government economic policy would ensure sustainable, inclusive and equitable growth along with job creation, it concludes.