Joe and the world

Many eminent scholars and experts have tried their hand at predicting what kind of a foreign policy the upcoming Biden administration might run. Few have addressed as to what might be the guiding principles behind the new engagements. As it turns out, there are some patterns from Joe’s past foreign policy postures and statements that can hold relevance in the rather different global circumstances. Some burning questions are addressed in the wake of Biden’s election victory.

How capable or willing is Biden to repair frayed alliances? Over the last four years, Biden has repeatedly rejected Trump’s “America first” as “America alone”. While he is sure to engage foremost in domestic firefighting, his Secretary of State is likely to get busy abroad early on, building bridges after Trump’s bull-in-a-China-shop presidency. But do not expect that a “normalization” of diplomatic protocol with European and Pacific allies will be quickly followed up by a roll-back of Trump-era demands concerning rents for regional security (American bases) and tariffs on trade. Trump’s ghost, or rather Trump’s tweets, will follow Biden’s major foreign policy announcements.

What does a Biden presidency mean for the future of global cooperation? In the past four years, Biden has been active on international conference circuit regarding matters of security and democracy, urging the world to keep it together and get through the “aberration” of Trump presidency. By all counts, expect “globalization” to take center stage, but more along the lines of global commons and global health issues.

Joe’s centrist credentials and narrow electoral mandate, his alignment with traditional US foreign policy ethos and the need for multilateral cooperation exposed by Covid-19, have all created a perfect storm for America to lead on a major global accord to save the world from future pandemics and disasters. The establishment Republicans, who still care about multilateralism, will be on Biden’s side.

After a chaotic election that has allowed the incumbent president to sow doubts over election integrity, can the US still turn around and preach the world about “democracy”? Historically, the return of a Democrat to the White House has been synonymous with the resumption of America’s lecturing to the world on human rights, freedom and democracy. Some commentators have argued that the “controversial” US presidential election encroaches upon that high moral ground and deters Biden from sermonizing on that count.

But Biden’s team is making a different, compelling case: if the world’s oldest and strongest democracy isn’t immune to demagoguery and disinformation, no democracy is. In fact, Biden is holding a global Summit for Democracy during his first year in office, to drive this point home. The summit will seek countries’ commitments on fighting corruption, defeating authoritarianism, ensuring election security and advancing human rights.

Another key question is whether Biden would go to war in the Middle East. It’s a complicated question, answer to which depends on how volatile the region gets in coming years. But give his past record, he or fellow Democrats won’t be eager to drag the US into a new war. Recall, it was Biden who opposed the Gulf War (1991); he voted for the Iraq war (2003), but regretted it later; he opposed the troop surge in Afghanistan (2009) which Obama overruled; he oversaw the US withdrawal from Iraq war (2011); and he objected to American boots on the ground in Syria when Obama’s “red-line” was crossed (2013).

The “Iran factor” is still dominant. While Biden may not be able to stitch up the Iran nuclear deal, expect some breathing room for Tehran. This will not sit well with the Gulf Sheikhs, who had thought recognizing Israel would keep them relevant in DC. Meanwhile, Russia will continue to poke and nudge the US into making a serious troops-based intervention in the Middle East. Moscow has been growing its presence and influence in the region, and it won’t be a surprise if the Gulf Sheikhs also start cozying up. Biden will have to align with Erdogan to keep Putin at bay, but that alliance isn’t easy to come by.

And finally, the China question: will the US continue down the road of confrontation with China? Most likely, the status quo will hold, but in a less hostile environment. There are reasons. One, Trump’s tariffs and anti-tech measures against China have enjoyed broad support in US Congress, and Biden won’t be able to reverse course easily. Two, recent legacy of China’s proactive stance concerning Hong Kong, confrontation with India and its economic influence under BRI have set Biden up into a confrontational stance early on. And three, Biden cannot be seen to be weak on China, given Trump’s campaign-mode allegations on the Biden family’s real or imagined Chinese connections.

But a softening of the tone, or a mellowing of the rhetoric is what seems to be in the offing. Biden’s team has given an early impression that they would like to keep American allies on board and build a stronger and broader coalition to address the West’s issues with China regarding trade, investment, security and level-playing field. In short, a Biden administration would like to contain China, but not at the cost of wrecking the global multilateral order.