US natgas futures down for fifth day on mild weather forecasts

US natural gas futures edged down for a fifth day in a row on Friday on forecasts for milder weather next week and a mostly steady rise in output.

The declines came despite a rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to record highs this week.

Front-month gas futures fell 3 cents, or 1.0%, to $2.912 per million British thermal units at 10:16 a.m. EST (1516 GMT). That puts the contract on track to fall for a fifth day in a row for the first time since April and its lowest close since Oct. 20.

For the week, the contract was down 13% after rising around 64% during the prior six weeks.

The declines caused futures premiums for December 2021 over December 2020 and November 2021 over October 2021 to rise to their highest since April 2011.

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states averaged 89.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in November, up from a five-month low of 87.4 bcfd in October.

Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would drop from an average of 96.4 bcfd this week to 91.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder, before jumping to 99.6 bcfd in two weeks with the coming of seasonally colder weather.

The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants hit a record 10.2 bcfd this week and was expected to remain near that level in coming weeks after a rise in global prices in recent months prompted buyers in Europe and Asia to purchase more US gas.

In the spot market, mild weather this week cut next-day gas prices at the Dominion South hub in southwest Pennsylvania and Transco Z6 in New York to their lowest since October 2017 and September 2016, respectively.