Crop year 2020-21 did not begin with outlandish targets. Median target output for important crops of the kharif sowing season shows no change over estimated production of last year. If the government’s earnest hopes of growth revival are contingent on an agricultural outperformance, how does it plan to get by with mediocre targets?
Scratch beneath the surface and the story of major crop targets begins to unravel. Despite several fiscal interventions announced for the sector in the annual budget as well as part of PM’s Covid Relief Fund, most readers may be surprised to find out that the Federal Committee on Agriculture’s targets for kharif season crops in fact implies a decline in major crop productivity. And the culprit is a crop often forgotten amidst controversies of wheat, sugarcane, and cotton; namely, maize.
For a crop that has outperformed its target by an average of 15 percent for much of the past decade, a 31 percent downward revision in target output should have raised alarm bells. Maize has fast turned into a leading cash crop for domestic farmers, especially those in central Punjab. Increase in area under maize has fast outpaced popular cash crops of the past - tobacco, cotton, and, in recent years, even sugarcane.
Low maize output target stems from unforeseen losses borne by growers at the time of spring crop harvest. Readers will recall that the harvest season coincided with beginning of nationwide lockdown, which sent wholesale prices of maize in a downward spiral. In FCA’s estimate, prior season losses coupled with volatile broiler demand during much of Q2 and Q3 of calendar year may restrain maize croppers, forcing them to remain on the side lines, leading to weak performance.
But FCA’s assumptions seems to negate its outlook. Maize crop demands low investment, especially in terms of fertilizers such as urea and DAP. The primary investment made by crop growers is of quality seed, which yields output at least two times that of traditional seed varieties. Already, most of Punjab based growers have shifted to high quality hybrid seed marketed by multinational seed companies.
Yet, the downward revision in maize target output by FCA is based in low yield, not acreage. The FCA target yield for maize for FY21 comes out to 3.75 tons per hectare, even as both target yield and actual yield over past five years have averaged between 4.4 – 4.8 tons per hectare. Meanwhile, area under crop cultivation is estimated at 1.35 million hectares – showing no change over target area last year, and a decline of 5 percent over actual cropped area during FY20.
If the crop manages to maintain its historic average yield of 4.5 tons per hectare, crop output shall still be third-highest in the past three years. While that is not entirely a disappointment, it sure signals a pause in the crop’s hitherto successful ride of becoming the third most popular crop domestically.
If FCA’s expectations (read: worst fears) for maize are realized, Pakistan’s kharif scorecard may no longer look upbeat. Already, the yearly exercise in cotton fancy is fast tasting a reality check, as cotton output is once again slated to be the lowest in four decades – based on provisional estimates of sown area of 2.2 million hectares.
That means kharif crop profitability will quietly bank on rice and sugarcane, crops that have historically proven profitable but also extremely inequitable. Farmlands under both paddy and cane require abundance of irrigated water, which means not all growers are fortunate enough to benefit from the bounty.
Whether paddy and cane will manage to outperform targets shall become clear over coming two months, respectively. But the lacklustre growth in fertilizer offtake during kharif thus far indicates the growers’ expenditure during the season has been restrained. Under these dubious circumstances, how will the planners at NFS&R manage to pull off a sectoral growth target of over two percent, remains unclear, if not altogether doubtful.
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