A possible fall in world feed barley output and stable foreign demand in 2005 is likely to help Ukraine dominate on the world export market in the first half of the 2005/06 season, analysts said on Monday. Kiev-based ProAgro agriculture constancy said the European Union was likely to cut non-EU barley exports due to drought in the southern part of the bloc, while Canada and Australia were likely to focus on malting barley exports.
"We forecast a rise in demand from North African states and stable demand from Saudi Arabia, which could import about six million tonnes of feed barley," ProAgro said, adding that Iran was also likely to buy a large volume of barley from the Black Sea region.
"Australia is a traditional barley supplier to Saudi Arabia, but could have higher prices and a lower volume of barley for export this season."
Analysts have said Ukraine is likely to harvest about 8.8 million tonnes of barley in 2005 compared with 10.03 million in 2004.
The government reported the crop at 11.07 million in 2004.
They also said Ukraine's barley exports could fall to 3.2 million tonnes in 2005/06 (July-June) from a record 4.25 million in 2004/05. The government, which forecast record grain exports of 10-12 million tonnes in 2005/06, has put barley output at 7-8 million tonnes.
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