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Turkish and Greek financial markets will not react sharply to the failure of the referendum to reunify Cyprus, as the opposing views of the Greek Cypriots and the Turkish Cypriots were already priced in, brokers said.
But investors say the outcome is broadly positive for Turkey's aim of starting entry talks with the European Union next year and also boosts Turkish Cypriot hopes of having an international trade embargo on their enclave lifted.
Greek Cypriot brokers were gloomier, saying they expected their community's "no" vote would weigh on the local economy.
In Saturday's referendum, Greek Cypriots overwhelmingly rejected the UN plan to reunite Cyprus before it joins the EU on May 1, while Turkish Cypriots strongly backed the blueprint.
Only the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot south will now enter the EU, but both Brussels and Washington have vowed to ease the Turkish Cypriots' economic and diplomatic isolation.
"Even though there is still no solution in Cyprus, Turkey's positive attitude (on reunification) and the possibility of a lifting of the trade embargo on northern Cyprus should create a positive mood (in Turkish markets)," said Ozgur Altug, an Istanbul-based economist at Raymond James brokerage.
Turkish shares, bonds and the lira currency have been buoyed in recent months by a combination of strong economic data and a growing conviction that Cyprus no longer poses the major obstacle it once did to Ankara's EU ambitions.
Banks, the market benchmark, were likely to be the most affected, along with tourism shares, mirroring concern of a gradual opening up of northern Cyprus that could harm tourism revenues in the much more developed - and expensive - south.

Copyright Reuters, 2004

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