LONDON: Matteo Renzi has achieved more in 11 months than sceptics feared. But the Italian prime minister's weak parliamentary position is holding him back.
The election of the successor of outgoing President Giorgio Napolitano and another year of low growth could throw doubt on Renzi's ability to end Italy's long crisis.
Having seized power in a form of palace coup in February, Renzi has delivered on some but not all of his promises. To be fair, he is in a weak position, with a slim parliamentary majority and enemies in his own centre-left party.
His labour reform cut the cost of firings, with the goal of making hiring more attractive.
His fiscal policy has been less impressive, relying on tax giveaways without equivalent spending cuts.
And he has spent much time trying to come up with a reform of the electoral system, a necessary step before he can implement his programme in full.
Barring a major Greek crisis, the economy could give Renzi a breather in 2015.
Italy would benefit from the bond-buying programme the European Central Bank may launch this month or next.
The weaker euro makes price-sensitive Italian exports more competitive.
And the lower oil price will boost the economy.
For now the European Commission expects Italy to grow 0.6 percent next year, a slight improvement from the two-year recession.
If Renzi's reforms of the political system are finally passed by parliament, he could even go on the offensive.
He could seek a mandate for more meaningful reforms by calling elections in late 2015 or early 2016.
These aren't bad times to try: Italy's older political class has lost credibility.
But recent months have seen a resurgence of the Northern League, the regionalist, anti-euro party. And the election of the next president by parliament could be a roadblock, if it is used by Renzi's opponents to vent their frustration - all the more easily because the vote is secret.
That would undermine the prime minister's authority and compromise his reform drive.
Another year of fragile growth and half-measures would leave in tatters his claim to reform Italy. Then Italians might start looking for more radical choices.
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