What one witnessed on the streets of Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot and other cities in Punjab, could well be a trailer of what is to come next. What is more worrisome is that the summer season has barely started.
It was well known to all that the energy crisis would get more acute; yet hardly any concrete efforts have been made since last year to bring some respite to the energy starved nation.
The electricity shortfall has already started crossing 4700MW - a level which is generally seen in the months of May and June. Absence of sufficient base load to cater to the increased demand post winters has long been the hallmark of the countrys power system.
The problem has aggravated further as water levels in Mangla and Tarbela reservoirs reached the dead mark.
Hydel power generation according to Pepco was restricted to only 2400MW - as against its installed capacity of 6500MW. Can blame the government for the decrease in water levels at the dams - but surely had there been more reservoirs, things could have been better. Or at least, the base load should be built on thermal power plants which should be ready to generate electricity in crunch times when hydel generation falls.
Forget about back-up plans, the base load thermal power generation is way below the mark for the same old reasons of either inefficient plants, liquidity crunch due to the inter-corporate circular debt or non-availability of natural gas for power generation. The gas-based power plants are receiving only three-fourth of their requirement of 1,096 mmcfd - primarily due to ill-planed prioritisation of gas.
Take for instance, the fuel supply position on March 21, 2012 - thermal power plants were provided just 18,036 tons of furnace oil against their requirement of 32,720 tons. The reduced supply causes a 45 percent reduction in the generation capacity of furnace-oil based plants.
The government is likely to react to the public protests and the pressure built by the opposition parties in the parliament. The most likely outcome would be delaying the inevitable - that is to issue TFCs and inject money in the system without addressing the root cause of the circular debt. But these measures will only result in months breather at best.
In fact, succumbing to the oppositions pressure in the parliament, Naveed Qamar has made allowance for the consumers to not pay the added fuel adjustment surcharge component for the running month - this will only worsen the problem as the tariff differential claims would mount and the government would find it difficult in its limited fiscal space to bridge the gap.
To say that it is high time that the government puts its house in order would not be right as the gravity of power crisis has only increased in the past four years. The excuse of not having a magic wand wouldn work anymore either - as enough time has passed with little work done. One should hope but not expect rational decisions to be taken as the upcoming budget would be an election budget. Brace yourselves for extended load-shedding.
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