CHICAGO: Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than usual across the U.S. Midwest this spring but farmers should be able to plant in a timely fashion because precipitation will not be greater than normal, an agricultural meteorologist said on Thursday.
"We are going to see a slow start to planting," Kyle Tapley with MDA Weather said at a conference. "But without any real excessive rainfall, which we are not expecting at this point, I would not expect the major delays that we saw last year."
Soils across the region were warming up slowly after a severe winter. Some snow was hitting the northern reaches of the Corn Belt this week and most farmers were still on the sidelines.
But Tapley said that there was little risk of flooding as the region thaws out, which will allow farmers to start rolling tractors as soon as temperatures rise.
Wet soils often lead to long delays as farmers who try planting in mud risk getting their equipment stuck. The practice of so called "mudding it in" also leads to crop development problems.
Concerns about planting delays have lent support to corn prices during the past few weeks. Midwest farmers typically aim to have the bulk of their corn planted by the middle of May so the crop is past its vulnerable pollination stage during the hottest part of the summer.
"Soil temperatures need to rise to around 54 degrees Fahrenheit in order to seed corn, and so far there have been only two days this spring that air temperatures have exceeded that level," Charlie Sernatinger, analyst with ED&F Man Capital said in a note to clients. "It is going to be very spotty, with the western belt likely to get planted more or less 'on time' while the far northern areas could see delays of two or more weeks."
Huge planters allow farmers to make quick progress in the fields once conditions are ripe. A year ago, farmers seeded nearly 40 percent of their corn acreage in just in one week so most growers were not concerned about soil temperatures just yet, analysts said.
Tapley forecast normal temperatures across much of the Corn Belt for June through August, with precipitation normal to above normal. Eastern areas were seen as the wettest during the summer months.
"I think this is a very favorable outlook for corn and soybeans."
During 2009, 1994 and 1986, the three years that Tapley said showed a comparable weather pattern, corn yields were an average 10 percent above trend and soybean yields were 8 percent above trend.
The good weather should boost final yields. MDA's forecast for this year's yields were 168.4 bushels per acre for corn and 46.2 bushels per acre for soybeans. A year ago, U.S. corn yields averaged 158.8 bushels per acre and soybean yields averaged 43.3 bushels per acre.
Weather problems have caused yields to fall below expected trends for the past four years, Tapley said.
Planting delays typically lead to an increase in soybean acres at the expense of corn. Soybeans can be planted later in the year than corn.
The U.S. Agriculture Department's planting intentions report released on Monday showed that farmers plant to seed a record 81.493 million acres of soybeans this year and 91.691 million acres of corn.
The southern U.S. Plains, suffering through a drought that was raising concerns about the health of the hard red winter wheat grown in that region, was expected to remain dry.
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