Brazil's real is likely to trade around record lows in coming months while speculators watch for signs of progress in President Jair Bolsonaro's policy overhaul drive as lawmakers reconvene after the summer recess, a Reuters poll showed.
The real is forecast at 4.17 per dollar in one month, trading in sight of Friday's 4.2862 per dollar, the currency's weakest point on record, according to the median estimate of 29 strategists in the January 31-February 4 survey.
The currency plunged last week due to fears about the coronavirus outbreak in China, which battered all emerging market currencies. However, it should strengthen once Congress starts debating.
The focus is now on Bolsonaro's attempts to cut public sector costs, as well as make it easier to fire workers. Officials will submit the initiative to lawmakers later this month. In the Brazilian government's view this is essential to put Latin America's No. 1 economy back on track after last year's disappointing results that left it mired in its worst recovery ever.
To succeed, Bolsonaro may try to capitalize on a recent jump in his approval ratings to push for action. However, he faces persistent unease over his free-market approach and scant job creation that is fueling discontent.
Most strategists assume reforms will be passed some time in 2020 and so the real will appreciate 5.7% from Tuesday's intraday values to 4.00 per dollar in 12 months, the survey showed. The one-year median estimate was the same as in January.
However, the projected rise may be lessened by downward pressure on the currency coming from the easing strategy of Brazil's central bank aimed at stimulating growth. The bank is expected to continue on Wednesday with a modest rate cut.
"The prospect of more rate reductions by the bank's monetary policy committee will continue to weaken the BRL in the short run," said Andrés Abadia, senior international economist at Pantheon.
Mexico's peso will probably keep the course it set three years ago, when the currency entered a trading range with a mid-point value of 19.00 per dollar after worries over US President Donald Trump's bilateral plans subsided.
Unlike the real, the peso has not been dented much by a recent flight to safe-haven assets caused by the coronavirus health crisis in China, benefiting from a very conservative policy by Banxico, the central bank.
Thanks to bets officials will maintain rates relatively high, the Mexican peso is seen at 19.3250 per dollar in 12 months, 3.2% weaker than its intraday values on Tuesday but more solid than last month's estimate.
The flip side of Banxico's firm stance, aimed at suppressing excessive currency fluctuations and keeping a lid on inflation, is the heavy toll it entails for economic activity, as expensive credit is dampening private investment.
In Argentina, the peso is forecast to depreciate faster in July, when President Alberto Fernández's government might consider relaxing heavy currency controls should his debt relief negotiations start to pay off and boost confidence.
"The central bank should refresh Argentina's FX scheme after the debt restructuring process if it wants to avoid a situation where the currency becomes so strong that it hinders trade," said Guido Lorenzo, executive director at LCG consultancy.
But in a rough prelude to how the country's debt talks may shape up in coming weeks, Argentina's Buenos Aires province had to pay its creditors in cash on Tuesday after failing to convince them into entering a bond reprofiling deal.
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