The Democrats pitched the November 6 mid-term elections a referendum on the idea of Trump. Unsurprisingly, Trump’s fear-mongering reached a fever pitch in the last week before polls. To counter falsehoods, Obama and Oprah entered the fray, hoping to rouse the Democratic base. But the Democrats were disappointed in the end, for no blue wave swept across America.
Some solace that the Democrats took back the House of Representatives. But this may not be a repudiation of Trump. The Republicans were expected to lose the House – the loss is in line with recent history where first-term presidents have often lost control of the House in midterms. The energy of young, black and female anti-Trump voters was outstanding, but flipping the House is no extraordinary event.
The Democrats were not expected to retake the Senate, but the fact that Trump’s party managed to take away several Senate seats from the Democrats should worry the left. With a divided Congress under a mercurial President, America may turn even more divisive as partisan gridlock and blame-games are expected to find new intensity in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election cycle.
What now? With a Democratic House majority, will Trump moderate his anger-filled rhetoric and reach across the aisle? Will the Democrats be satisfied with a just-enough check on Trump instincts? Or will they start chasing the President in the matter of the Russia collusion inquiry and go to the extent of starting impeachment proceedings? Impeachment is off the table as Trump has majority in the Senate.
Whatever the Democrats do in next 18 months, Trump now looks competitive for re-election in 2020. His base has held together, signified by the Democrats’ Senate losses in Conservative states and the Republicans’ contained losses in the House. The economy is humming for now and Trump’s fear tactics are selling fine in the red and purple states. Meanwhile, the Democrats are still without a new charismatic leader to rally behind and they don’t have an appealing, alternative message for Trump country.
Perhaps one hopeful thing out of these midterms is that the House Democrats may ensure that Trump’s MO at home and abroad doesn’t deteriorate further. Or in other words, one can expect more of the same as has happened in the last couple of years, but with a somewhat tampered rhetoric by the White House occupant. But those leaders in Europe and Asia who had been hoping to wait out Trump as a historical aberration might still have a long wait on their hand.
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