The dollar was set to end 2015 with a 9 percent annual gain against a basket of currencies on Thursday, a fall in December failing to take the shine off its strongest run higher since the turn of the century. In a rally that dates back to May 2014, the greenback has now appreciated by more a fifth in value against a basket of currencies and by more than a quarter against the euro.
It was marginally higher against the single currency on the day, down a touch against the yen and in retreat against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which recovered some ground along with global oil prices. While the consensus among major bank analysts is still for the dollar to gain against peers such as the euro and yen in 2016, such forecasts are less widespread than a year ago and, with some exceptions, stop short of predicting a rise to parity with the euro.
Richard Benson, co-head of portfolio investment at currency fund Millennium Global, said rises in US bond yields since the Federal Reserve delivered its first hike in interest rates on December 16 pointed to a strong start to next year for the dollar. "The yield differential between dollar and euro rates is enormous. The 2-year yield implies the euro at $1.03," he said. That compared to an exchange rate of $1.0923 on Thursday.
"If you look at the performance of macro hedge funds this year, a lot of them are flat so they may feel obliged to chase the market at the start of next year. The standout for me is the plain vanilla euro-dollar, euro-sterling rate differential story." The dollar has lost almost 5 percent to the euro in the past month and the dollar index almost 2 percent. That has been put down by most to sales by investors cashing in on gains made in this year's rally, although there has been some talk this week of a rebalancing of holdings by one or more of the big central banks.
Sterling, driven to an 8-month low on Tuesday by fears over Britain's referendum on leaving the European Union, steadied at $1.4830. It has fallen 4.7 percent against a basket of currencies this year. The yen was a touch higher on the day at 120.36 yen and is less than 1 percent weaker over the past 12 months, halting a run of double digit annual depreciations since 2011.
Offshore rates for China's yuan also looked steadier, at 6.5700 yuan per dollar, having briefly breached 6.60 yuan per dollar for the first time since the second half of 2011 on Wednesday. A substantially weaker yuan was among many major banks' top trades for 2016 in a batch of annual outlooks published in the past month. "People are a bit nervous of chasing the yuan higher," said a dealer with one international bank in London. "There is clearly the danger that, just as they did earlier this month, the authorities there decide to push it the other way for a few days to shake out the speculators."
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