SAO PAULO: Brazilian agribusiness consultancies shared contrasting views on Friday as they released fresh estimates for the country’s 2024/25 soybean crop, with Safras & Mercado hiking its forecast while Patria AgroNegocios trimmed its projection.
Both firms still forecast the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter to harvest a record crop this year, but Patria noted that adverse weather in some key states should keep production below the level of 170 million metric tons.
Patria pegged Brazil’s soybean output this season at 167.94 million tons, up from 147.74 million in the previous cycle - when farmers grappled with bad weather - but below the 170.41 million it had estimated in December.
The head of the consultancy firm, Matheus Pereira, said the lower forecast was related to a drop in “crop quality” in some large producing states, such as Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Meteorologists warned earlier this week that dry weather was limiting soybean development in southern Brazil at the same time as excessive rain was set to disrupt early harvest work in some central areas of the country.
Safras & Mercado acknowledged weather issues in the same states cited by Patria, noting they could lead to lower output, but indicated that a “very favorable scenario” in top grain-producing state Mato Grosso would help offset those losses.
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