The economic cost of political unrest

EDITORIAL: Federal Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has claimed that protests cost the country 190 billion rupees per day — a clear reference to the ongoing call by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

The source of this report is a monitoring desk with no mention of where precisely Aurangzeb made his statement, a prerequisite for filing a report, thereby prompting many to conclude that as it contains the same data as was shared by the Finance Minister during his press conference on 8 October this year, it was republished at the behest of a government that reckons this information would strengthen its own position. His earlier statement noted that “such actions cost the country around 190 billion rupees per day, severely affecting economic growth. We face serious consequences whenever the government is compelled to shut down businesses and cities due to a law and order situation.”**

The report compiled by the Ministry of Finance formed the basis of Aurangzeb’s 8 October press conference and itemised the following daily costs to the country: daily Gross Domestic Product loss estimated at 144 billion rupees, loss of exports 24 billion rupees, loss associated with a decline in foreign direct investment estimated at 3 billion rupees, agriculture sector losing 26 billion rupees and the industrial sector 26 billion rupees.

The sum total is more than the total of 190 billion rupees announced by the Finance Minister, leading one to argue that some costs are also embedded in others. It is, however, unclear as to how much is attributable to the protesters and how much to the pre-emptive measures taken by the Interior Minister.

Be that as it may, there have been no more than a handful of federal cabinet members and two Punjab cabinet ministers who have publicly denigrated the PTI’s timing (coinciding with the visit of a very large Belorussian delegation) as well as its impact on the general public due to the pervasive lockdown through placement of containers on not only major motorways connecting cities in Punjab as well as the federal capital but also streets within cities disabling entire neighbourhoods from the ability to access a hospital during medical emergencies.

The fact that the lockdown began days before the date of the protest renders the government’s narrative a hard sell for the general public as well as PML-N stalwarts like Rana Sanaullah, a former Interior Minister as well as Home Minister for Punjab, who previously dismissed such Draconian measures as an “overkill” that without doubt would have severe negative political repercussions on the ruling elite.

While the PTI and the government are blaming each other for the ongoing loss to the economy as well as to disruption of movement within the country, yet one would hope that better sense prevails, and both sides adopt a more thoughtful approach to actions while toning down their rhetoric. Notwithstanding the fact that the two must share blame yet the onus to lead from a position of strength must fall on the government, with access to unlimited public resources.

One can only hope that negotiations between representatives of political parties are initiated and for the sake of the general public a consensus based on minimum rather than maximum positions is taken.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024