MUMBAI: The Indian rupee was flat against the dollar on Wednesday in the run up to important US data and presidential election, while forward premiums rose in response to the dip in US Treasury yields.
The rupee was at 84.0750 to the US dollar at 10:50 a.m. IST, unchanged from the previous session. Other Asian currencies were mostly weaker, the dollar index was slightly higher and Indian equities dropped.
The US September core PCE data is due on Thursday followed by the October jobs report the following day.
The US election is on Nov. 5. “The US election holds major implications… for all markets and there will be a lot of nervousness till that is out of the way,” a currency trader at a bank said.
The rupee “right now is not going anywhere”, but it would be a mistake to position counting on this stability to continue post the US election outcome, he said.
The odds of former President Donald Trump winning have risen in recent days, a development which has pushed the dollar higher and lifted US Treasury yields. Still, the odds of Trump winning are only slightly more than a coin toss.
“Even if it looks like they now assign a higher probability to a Trump win and a Republican sweep, there is still a lot of uncertainty,” Capital Economics said in a note.
“We judge that there is ample scope for a sizeable move (across markets) in the days after the election.”
The 10-year US Treasury yield, which has been pushing higher on bets of a Trump win, pulled back on Tuesday amid a soft US job openings data.
Tracking the decline in US yields, the dollar/rupee forward premiums rose with the 1-year implied yield up 3 basis points at 2.28%.
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