Wheat, corn and soy take breather after short-covering rally

CANBERRA: Chicago wheat, corn and soybean futures eased on Thursday, but still hovered near multi-week highs after a flurry of short-covering by speculative investors pulled prices from about four-year lows.

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Fundamentals

• The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 0.7% at $5.77 a bushel, as of 0103 GMT, but up around 10% from the start of previous week.

• CBOT corn slipped 0.1% at $4.12-1/2 a bushel, but was 7% above its lows early last week. * Soybeans fell 0.5% to $10.16-3/4 a bushel, but have gained around 6% in the last fortnight.

• “The grain and oilseed markets continue to have a firmer bias as speculative funds unwind massive short positions in the complex,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman wrote in a note.

• Wheat is benefiting from poor European production and corn and soy from dry weather in the Midwest stressing roughly 25% of the US corn and soy crop, according to Commodity Weather Group.

• A weak dollar has also helped stimulate some overseas demand for US agricultural goods. * Still, most analysts believe the markets are well-supplied, which should keep a lid on prices.

• Last week featured some of the hottest temperatures yet observed this growing season across the US corn belt, but the impact was largely offset by rains toward the end of the period.

• StoneX on Wednesday lowered its US corn production estimate to 15.127 billion bushels from 15.207 billion, and raised its estimate for US soybean output to 4.575 billion bushels from 4.483 billion.

• Those numbers imply bumper harvests of both crops. The United States is a key exporter of both and harvest typically begins in September. Low water levels, however, in the lower Mississippi River could hamper exports.

• In Brazil, the biggest shipper of soybeans, whose harvest has already wrapped up, the area planted with soy will grow in 2024/25 at its slowest pace in almost two decades due in part to low prices, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said.

• Farmers are set to start sowing this month, although bad weather is likely to delay some work in the fields.

• Ukrainian farmers have started sowing winter grain crops for the 2025 harvest but soil moisture in most regions is extremely low, state weather forecasters said.

• Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures on Wednesday, traders said.