MUMBAI: Indian government bond yields are expected to consolidate on Tuesday, with the benchmark bond yield around 7.10% levels, as the recent fall in yields could attract further profit booking, while US peers remained flattish.
The benchmark 10-year yield is likely to move in a 7.08%-7.13% range, following its previous close of 7.1068%, the lowest level since April 4, a trader with a private bank said.
“As expected, benchmark yield is seeing strong offers around the 7.10% zone, and is unlikely to break that level unless there is some new trigger, and with not much data this week, we may see some sideways moves,” the trader said.
Bond yields declined at the start of the week, as the government announced a surprise buyback of bonds worth 400 billion rupees ($4.79 billion), due on Thursday, to infuse liquidity into the banking system.
The buyback of securities is a liquidity injecting tool, and will help in easing liquidity in the system, a source familiar with the government’s thinking said.
“We are not in the camp which interprets the buyback as a signal of a change in the central bank’s stance on liquidity or policy.
In our view, it underscores the authorities’ preference to stay nimble with its liquidity toolkit,“ DBS Bank said.
India bonds not reacting to strong domestic growth, yields little changed
Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remained largely unchanged, with the 10-year yield anchored around the 4.50% mark, as investors digested Friday’s data showing non-farm payrolls rose by 175,000 jobs in April, below estimates of 243,000.
The data has validated the Federal Reserve’s suggestion that the economy was not so overheated and it could embark on its rate easing cycle in 2024. Futures are now pricing 44 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, most likely starting in September or November, according to the LSEG’s rate probability app.
For the last few weeks, the futures market had factored in just one cut amid persistently elevated inflation and strong economic data.
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