MUMBAI: Indian government bond yields are expected edge lower in the early session on Wednesday, following the decline in US yields prompted by weak economic data, while investors brace for the significant jobs data due on Friday.
The benchmark 10-year yield is expected to hover in a 7.04%-7.08% range, following its previous close of 7.0567%, a trader with a private bank said.
“Bond yields have been as steady as they could have got over the past few days, clinging to 7.05% level, but the break of 4.20% on the downside for the 10-year US yield could provide some bullish push,” the trader said.
US yields declined, with the 10-year yield easing to lowest level in a month after the services industry growth slowed in February, and a gauge of prices paid for inputs by businesses also fell to 58.6 from an 11-month high of 64.0 in January.
Weak economic data could nudge the Federal Reserve to consider earlier action on monetary policy than envisaged, with the odds for a rate cut in May now standing at 25%, up from 16% in the previous week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Traders now await testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday for any cues on policy, which will be followed by February non-farm payroll data due on Friday.
India bond yields dip as US Treasury move triggers bullishness
Back home, bonds did not react to the inclusion of Indian government notes in another index, as Bloomberg Index Services said on Tuesday that it would include 34 government securities eligible for investment via the country’s fully accessible route in its Emerging Market Local Currency Index from Jan. 31, 2025.
“Unlike JPMorgan GBI-EM which is tracking an estimated AUM of around $230-$240 billion, the BBG EMLC GBI is a much smaller index, possibly tracking an estimated AUM of around $10-$20 billion, implying India’s passive flows impact could be between $1-$2 billion only,” Madhavi Arora, lead economist at brokerage Emkay Global, said.
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