ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected an increase of 0.6 per cent in the government expenditure for Pakistan from 19.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023 to 20.1 per cent in 2024.
According to the IMF report “Fiscal Monitor”, the government gross debt for Pakistan is projected to decline from 76.6 per cent of GDP in 2023 to 72.2 per cent in 2024.
The Fund has projected a decline in the net debt for Pakistan from 71.6 per cent of the GDP in 2023 to 68.3 per cent in 2024.
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The government revenue is projected at 12.5 per cent of GDP for 2024 and 12.4 per cent for 2025 against 11.4 percent during the same period of 2023 and 12.1 per cent in 2022.
The Fund has projected government’s primary balance at 0.4 per cent for 2024 against -1.2 per cent in 2023.
The World Bank has projected primary balance for Pakistan at negative 0.4 per cent (-0.4) for the current fiscal year 2023-24, as opposed to 0.4 per cent surplus (0.4) by the IMF, while claiming last week that its data is updated relative to the Fund.
Further, the government’s overall balance is projected at -7.6 per cent for 2024 against -8.1 per cent in 2023.
According to the report the country’s debt to average maturity in 2023 is estimated at 33.8 per cent of GDP. There would be total gross financing need of about 23.7 per cent of GDP in 2023. Gross financing need is defined as the projected overall balance and maturing government debt in 2023.
The projected interest rate – growth differential 2023-28 is -6.1 per cent while the non-resident holding of general government debt, 2022 is projected at 29.5 per cent of the total.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023
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