MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to struggle at the opening on Wednesday in the wake of the dollar index’s move higher on weak risk appetite.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open slightly weaker to the US dollar from 82.8275 in the previous session.
“If you take into account the current level, it is to be expected that incremental moves higher (on USD/INR) will be quite slow and measured,” a forex trader at a bank said.
“USD/INR longs, which we do not think are too many, may not like this measured pace, but will take comfort that 83 is just right there.”
The rupee over the last couple of sessions has repeatedly taken support at around 82.80-82.85, which a few market participants reckon is due to the Reserve Bank of India’s intervention.
The dollar index climbed 0.5% on Tuesday, helped by the drawdown on US equities. China’s disappointing trade data and a downgrade of US mid-sized banks hurt risk sentiment.
Moody’s cut the credit ratings of 10 small- to mid-sized US banks and placed six large lenders on review for potential downgrades on strains from higher funding costs and rising risks.
Investors now await the US inflation data due Thursday. On Wednesday, China put out its inflation numbers, which showed that deflation risks were building.
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“Unless the upcoming US inflation data is way different from consensus, USDINR could stick to the current range for some more time,” said Srinivas Puni, managing director at QuantArt Market Solutions.
The RBI policy decision is due at 10:00 a.m. on Thursday.
The central bank is expected to make no changes to the policy rate but will retain the hawkish tone amid the recent jump in food prices.
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