A tired merry-go-round

Imran Khan’s conviction in the Toshakana case on August 5, 2023 and subsequent imprisonment in Attock Jail may only be the beginning of a new round of political contention, tension and instability.

The former prime minister has been sentenced to three years imprisonment, a Rs 100,000 fine, failure to pay which would mean an additional imprisonment of six months, disqualification from holding public office for five years and, arguably, will soon find himself removed by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) from the position of chairman of his party, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI).

The manner in which the Additional District and Sessions Judge Humayun Dilawar applied closure to the case and announced the verdict may not entirely be due to impatience with the obvious delaying tactics Imran Khan and his legal team had been using in this and all the other cases against him in various courts all over the country.

Although that impatience is understandable given that Imran Khan only attended, despite notices, three of the 40 hearings of the case and his lawyer failed to appear on the day despite repeated calls by the judge.

Finally, at least on the surface, the judge decided enough is enough and went ahead with the sentencing. Legal eagles, not just those aligned with or sympathetic to the PTI and its leader, were quick to point out that the judge had not proceeded in the correct manner before the sentencing since the correct procedure would have been to call for the defendant’s attendance, failing which he could have been declared a proclaimed offender and then arrested.

However, while the facts of the Toshakana case clearly go against Imran Khan, appeals to the superior courts may rely upon the procedural lacunae leading to the final verdict, with in some circles’ view, relief being available.

Interestingly, Imran Khan’s appeal to his followers to hold peaceful protests in case he is arrested seem to have fallen on stony, rendered infertile ground, given the extent and depth of the repression against the PTI since May 9, 2023, the subsequent flight of opportunists from the party’s leadership and ranks, and the reigning fear amongst the remaining workers in the light of the repression unleashed against them.

As a result, scattered, small protests emerged here and there, but nothing like what happened earlier, particularly on May 9, 2023. This reflects the objective state of affairs of the PTI at the present conjuncture.

For those familiar with this country’s history and how political leaders fallen from grace are treated, the entire scenario resembles nothing but the same old tired, predictable script. One view is that the punishment in neither Nawaz Sharif’s (Iqama) nor Imran Khan’s (Toshakhana) case fits the crime.

After all, the Supreme Court (SC) in its wisdom convicted the former on grounds that had nothing to do with the Panama Papers case. In the latter’s case, the fact that the judge imposed the maximum punishment suggests not just pique but some bigger plan. While Imran Khan cools his heels in Attock Jail, there may be further bad news in store for him.

Judging by past experience and the plethora of cases against him, some of a far more serious nature than the Toshakhana one, there may be more misery in store for him. The ‘plan’ therefore reeks of a total ‘technical’ knockout of the contender.

Will this be any different from the similar ‘technical knockouts’ delivered by the ubiquitous establishment against Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, to take only two examples from our relatively recent history? Only time will tell, but experience seems to indicate that political leaders and parties are seldom demolished by such judicial manoeuvrings.

More important, if Imran Khan is out of the running, and even if a depleted PTI is allowed to participate in the upcoming general elections, what will be the credibility of whatever government emerges from this familiar merry-go-round? The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has declared through Prime Minister (PM) Shahbaz Sharif that the next PM will be Nawaz Sharif.

This is of course only possible when the path for Nawaz Sharif’s return to the country is cleared through judicial review of his conviction. The timeframe in the government’s mind may be after the retirement of incumbent Chief Justice of Pakistan Umar Ata Bandial. The government may be harbouring hopes the subsequent SC setup may look more kindly on Nawaz Sharif’s fate.

To get there however may require some time. Lo and behold, help and succour in this regard has been offered by the ‘unanimous’ decision of the Council of Common Interests endorsing the 2023 digital census, which by a remarkable coincidence, has arrived at the conclusion (after ‘corrections’ of the original population figures) that all the provinces of Pakistan have seen more or less equal growth in population since the 2017 census, obviating any need to change the number of National Assembly (NA) seats for any province, which would require a constitutional amendment, a venture made impossible by the fact that no party can at present muster a two-thirds majority in the present, incomplete (PTI absconding) NA.

How fortuitous, how convenient! All that remains therefore is the few months the ECP needs to rejigger the NA constituencies within each province according to the 2023 census and the elections will ensue, possibly in spring 2024. By that time, whatever more is in store for Imran Khan and the PTI will probably have come to pass and there will be few if any obstacles for the ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement coalition parties to romp home in a one-sided election exercise. Welcome to Pakistani democracy.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023