Most Asian currencies weakened on Thursday, with the dollar underpinned by higher US Treasury yields as fears resurfaced that the Federal Reserve could maintain a hawkish stance when it meets next week, keeping rates higher for longer.
South Korea’s won and the Thai baht were amongst the top losers in the region, falling 0.3% each against the dollar.
Equities also largely skidded lower, with stocks in Kuala Lumpur hitting a more than three-year low.
US Treasury yields jumped after the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets on Wednesday by hiking its overnight rate, a move that came after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also raised interest rates earlier this week.
The hawkish surprises from the BoC and the RBA fuelled expectations that the Fed might not be done raising rates despite the futures market pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a pause in June, OCBC Bank strategists said in a note.
Asian currencies inch higher on retreating Fed rate hike bets
Markets are now pricing in a 69% chance of the Fed standing still next week, compared to 78% just a day earlier, CME’s FedWatch tool showed.
“Rate pauses from central banks are more of a wait-and-see, rather than a clear end to tightening,” said Yeap Jun Rong, a Singapore-based market strategist at IG Asia. “(BoC’s) decision reinforces views that we may still see additional tightening from the Fed after its June meeting.”
China’s yuan dropped against the dollar to its lowest since November last year, on concerns over the country’s economic outlook after May trade data released on Wednesday showed a slump in exports.
Shares in Shanghai and Hong Kong slipped 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively.
Meanwhile, Malaysia, the world’s second-largest palm oil producer, is expected to experience weak El Nino conditions starting in June that could intensify to moderate levels by November, the country’s environment minister said on Wednesday.
Hot and dry weather caused by El Nino is bad for palm oil production.
Malaysia could experience a crude palm oil production drop of between 1 to 3 million metric tons next year due to El Nino, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said last month.
The ringgit, which has lost 4.8% so far this year in its third consecutive annual decline, was down 0.4% on Thursday, leading the falls among its Asian peers.
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