Dollar rises vs most currencies as US non-farm payrolls loom

NEW YORK: The dollar gained against most of its peers on Thursday in thin trading, as investors consolidated positions and pondered how pivotal US jobs data coming out on a stock trading holiday might impact Federal Reserve policy and unleash a potentially volatile market reaction.

The US stock market is closed on Good Friday and some European countries are shut on Monday as well.

The closely-watched US non-farm payrolls report on Friday, when many markets around the world are closed, will follow disappointing manufacturing and services sector data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and private employment figures on Wednesday.

“The market is consolidating here and I don’t think there’s much participation given the upcoming holiday. I’m still bearish on the dollar,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist, at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

Thursday’s US initial jobless claims added fuel to the slowing-economy mantra. The data incorporated revisions to previous numbers after the government updated the model it uses to adjust the series for seasonal fluctuations.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 18,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 228,000 for the week ended April 1. But data for the prior week was revised to show 48,000 more applications received than previously reported.

In addition, the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, rose 6,000 to 1.823 million during the week ending March 25.

While the slew of sluggish economic data has caused traders to scale back bets on how much longer US rates would need to stay in restrictive territory, it has simultaneously reignited concerns about the risk of recession.

For markets, this could make for a highly volatile session.

In late morning trading, the US dollar index, which hit a two-month low this week, thanks in part to a drop in Treasury yields, was up 0.1% at 101.96.

The dour US economic signs have strengthened the view that the Fed will reverse course on rate increases,

US rate futures markets are currently pricing in a roughly even chance of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its next meeting, with multiple rate cuts being priced by the end of the year.

The Japanese yen, which has also some support from safe haven bids, fell against the dollar, which rose 0.4% to 131.79 yen.

Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars dropped 0.9% and 1.1%, respectively. Sterling slid 0.3% to $1.2429, while the euro was little changed at $1.0917.