MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to open lower against the US currency on Friday after the dollar index reached a one-month high following comments from US Federal Reserve officials over the quantum of rate hikes.
The rupee is tipped to open around 79.75 per US dollar in initial trades compared with 79.6725 in the previous session.
The dollar index on Friday reached 107.72, the highest level since July 18, adding to the previous session’s 0.8% advance.
The 2-year Treasury yield was hovering above 3.20%.
Traders assessed comments by Fed officials that once again seemed to signal that the US central bank was unlikely to make a dovish pivot.
One Fed official backed a third straight 75 basis points rate (bps) hike and another reckoned that a 50 bps or 75 bps rate hike would be reasonable at next month’s meeting.
While odds of a 75 bps rate hike at the September meeting have softened a bit following the July US inflation data, Fed fund futures showed there is still a 40% probability that the central bank will hike rates by 0.75 percentage points.
Indian rupee higher on dollar inflows, risk-on sentiment
“Markets find that the dovish Fed being hoped for is still a long time away,” Srinivas Puni, managing director at QuantArt Market Solutions, said.
The dollar index is now up almost 3% from the lows witnessed following the US inflation data.
Treasury yields too are now at or above levels prior to the inflation data amid broad push back from Fed officials against expectations that the pace of rate hikes is likely to slow.
The offshore Chinese yuan dropped 0.3% to 6.82 to the dollar on Friday, leading Asian currencies lower. The Chinese currency has come under pressure on concerns over the nation’s economic outlook.
“Further, concerns about the Chinese situation have been playing on Asian currencies and disadvantaging the rupee,” Puni said.
The rebound in oil prices is likely to add to rupee’s woes in Friday’s session. Brent crude futures climbed 3% on Thursday.
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