Russian rouble stabilises in offshore trade after heavy losses

MOSCOW: The Russian rouble stabilised on Tuesday in thin offshore trade after heavy losses over the war in Ukraine, which has made it the world’s worst-performing emerging market currency this year.

The local market was closed for a public holiday, with currency trading expected to resume on Wednesday.

The rouble has fallen more than 40% against the dollar since the start of the year, with losses sharply accelerating after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, a move that sparked sweeping sanctions from governments around the world.

Curbs on Russia and on its lenders, companies and key individuals, as well as counter measures from Moscow, have made it increasingly difficult for investors to trade Russian assets.

On the EBS trading platform, the rouble was flat on the day at 132.0 to the dollar. On another platform, it was at 126.0 against the greenback, Refinitiv data showed, more than 7% stronger than its closing level on Monday.

The bid-ask spread was very wide, pointing to a highly illiquid market.

Franziska Palmas, markets economist at Capital Economics, said the rouble’s fall was cushioned to some extent by relief that “something akin to an embargo on Russian oil may not be assured of or as likely as it seemed yesterday.”

“Trading conditions are so disrupted for Russian assets that it’s very hard to ... know to what extent the prices reflect trading rather than expectations, or the fundamentals of those assets,” Palmas said.

A Russia and Ukraine made no major breakthrough in a third round of talks on Monday. A Ukrainian negotiator said things were largely unchanged despite small progress on logistics to evacuate civilians. A Russian negotiator said talks had not been easy.

Stock trading on the Moscow Exchange was restricted all last week by order of the central bank.

Russia will be excluded from all of JPMorgan’s fixed income indexes on March 31, the bank said on Monday, joining rival index providers that had earlier excluded Russian securities after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

An investment firm that held some of Russian energy firm Gazprom’s $1.3 billion bond that matured on Monday said it received full payment in US dollars. Investors had been unsure if they would be paid after Russia put restrictions on payments to foreigners holding its securities.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Tuesday that Russia would spend an additional 455 billion roubles from the state budget on payouts to families with children aged between eight and 16 years old, as ordered by President Vladimir Putin.