As Joe Biden starts the second year of his term, his administration that came in promising normalization is still searching for calm. Despite his team’s impressive scorecard vis-à-vis vaccination, Omicron has laid bare continuing difficulties in managing political fallout of Covid-19. Economy is booming all right, but persistent inflation is causing headaches now. Biden is reassuring European and Pacific allies on US commitment on climate change, global health and NATO security, but there is still a sense of dread.
Given the hard choices he has had to make on certain issues (e.g. Afghan withdrawal, border security) and the patient waiting-game he has been forced to play on major legislations (e.g. legislation on human development, climate change, voting rights), there is an impression that Biden is governing like someone who is not worried about a re-election. His second presidential year may tell if he is even interested in a second term. It’s an important question, given factors like his age and succession issues within his party.
Biden entered office in January last year riding an approval rating of 56 percent (as per data from RealClearPolitics) – currently, only 42 percent of Americans approve of his job performance. Presidential ratings tend to fall in initial years. For instance, at the end of the first year in office, Trump’s approval rating had dropped from 44 percent to 39 percent, whereas Obama’s job approval rate nosedived from 63 percent to 50 percent. And historically, a sitting president’s party tends to have a bad mid-term election.
Specifically, Biden has an approval rating of 35 percent on handling Immigration, 40 percent on managing Economy, 41 percent on conducting Foreign Policy, and 48 percent on containing Coronavirus. Currently, 30 percent of Americans think that US is heading in the right direction under Biden – lower than Trump (33%) and Obama (36%) towards the end of their respective first year in office. Biden has some catching up to do if he is to convince most Americans that his calm demeanor can lead the way out of crises.
And the crises are many. American continues to reel under the weight of divisive politics. There are divergent perspectives on the future and health of American democracy one year after the “January 6 insurrection”. Trump has still not conceded his 2020 loss to Biden, and there are indications that he may run again in 2024 on the unfounded-yet-significant plank of “stolen election”. The leaders in the Republican Party seem to be firmly behind him. There is not much that Biden can do to influence that – albeit his fiery speech on the January 6th anniversary that targeted Trump’s actions may signal a shift.
Then, Biden’s own party is divided on making significant investments in human development through the $1.75 trillion Build Back Better agenda, climate change, voting rights, judicial reforms, and the rest. In an evenly-divided Senate, two Democratic senators are calling the shots on what legislation Biden can or cannot pass. The economy, meanwhile, has to brace for impact as Federal Reserve responds to rising inflation by reducing asset purchases and potentially raising interest rates by at least three times in 2022.
On the external front, America may be increasingly challenged by Russia and China over Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively. Biden has an accomplished national security team, but US foes seem emboldened since Afghanistan exit fiasco. In the current geopolitical environment, both the US and its rivals have the potential to misread each other’s defensive and offensive postures, respectively. Therein lies another one of Biden’s great challenges: he may not want another war, but he cannot appear to be took weak either.
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