‘Deals’ in the air

Nothing in our blessed country is ever simple or straightforward. What appears to be ‘true’ very often turns out to be a figment of some overactive imagination. What appears ‘false’ is often turned into a ‘misunderstanding’, ‘misquote’ or ‘misinterpretation’. Spare a thought then for the ordinary citizen’s inability to sift truth from fiction or lies, and the subsequent confusion that follows almost inevitably.

The political atmosphere in the country has taken a sudden and unexpected turn that has given rise to a ‘buzz’ in the air about portentous events in the offing. Let us begin in sequence from the recent local bodies (LB) elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The province had come to be considered a stronghold of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) for having won the KP provincial elections (part of the general elections) for the past two terms. Extended incumbency, however, can often prove a double-edged sword. To put it mildly, the PTI has been administered a drubbing in these LB elections at the hands of its (now) main opposition in KP: the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F). The latter had virtually been written off as a force in its home base of KP in recent years, allegedly because the ubiquitous establishment no longer found Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s party as useful as it had proved during the Afghan wars of yesteryear.

The LBs election drubbing in KP is being considered a ‘signal’ from the establishment that the PTI can no longer assume it has its backing. So much for the by now overused ‘same page’ mantra. This interpretation makes sense if you consider the almost certain concern of the establishment that brought it to power through the allegedly manipulated and rigged 2018 general election that the PTI’s performance in office leaves much to be desired (to put it politely). The relatively free, fair and non-manipulated or -rigged LBs election in KP indicates the seeming strategy the establishment has now plumped for, three and a half years into the PTI’s incumbency. The establishment may have calculated that removing Imran Khan and his government ‘forcibly’ may provide him a handy response from on top his favourite container to argue that he was removed because he went after the alleged corrupt amongst the opposition leadership. This may accord him both the moral high ground and political momentum. Therefore the wiser course may be to let him fall under the weight of his own mistakes, inadequacies and bad performance in power. If the LBs elections in KP are any guide, this is a sure-shot strategy given the general disillusionment with the PTI government, centring around, but not necessarily confined to, the handling of the economy, a handling that has delivered precious little except galloping double-digit inflation, unemployment (hardly any investment to speak of) and failure to deliver on any of the much trumpeted social welfare policies around which the PTI’s election rhetoric revolved (the peanuts from Ehsaas and other dole-out programmes notwithstanding). Imran Khan’s (always) misplaced response: dissolve the entire PTI party structure, especially at the local level and ‘replace’ it with federal ministers! Imran Khan’s habitual misplaced concreteness has not been honest enough to admit its own bad governance is the main reason for the defeat, instead blaming local favouritism and wrong choice of candidates. The foisting of a highly centralised party structure has aroused resentment and grumbling at the grassroots level of the PTI in KP and arguably throughout the country. The efficacy or otherwise of this move will soon be tested in the Punjab LB elections.

The uncertainties about PTI’s future have also received a fillip from former Speaker of the National Assembly and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Ayaz Sadiq’s recent startling statement after returning from London where he met Nawaz Sharif that the latter would be returning to the country soon amidst a ‘big bang’. This ‘big bang’ remains as much a mystery to date as the one that theoretically gave birth to the Universe. Ayaz Sadiq confirmed that ‘non-political’ people had been meeting Nawaz Sharif in London of late, but confessed ignorance as to their identity or the content of these discussions. However, he did argue that this development made sense given that the establishment had realised it had blundered in foisting Imran Khan and the PTI on the country. Implied in this argument is the unstated but highly desirable outcome of future elections at all levels being relatively free and fair (at least till 2023).

As per by now the tired and familiar script, both the government spokespeople and the opposition are going hammer and tongs at each other over the possibility that Nawaz Sharif may return under a ‘deal’, which would have to include a review of the Supreme Court’s disqualification of Nawaz Sharif from holding public office for life, merely because he had not declared his iqama (residence and employment certificate) while in exile and was therefore found not sadiq and ameen (honest and truthful) as required by General Ziaul Haq’s inserted provisions in Articles 62 and 63 of the Constitution. But this is not the only possible ‘deal’ causing a stir. Asif Zardari too has chimed in with intriguing hints of being ‘approached’ to find a way out of the present political impasse.

What all this amounts to may be succinctly summed up with the observation that Pakistan’s polity has sunk to a new/old low: the incumbents are actual and chosen collaborators of the establishment while the opposition waiting in the wings is a potential collaborator. What a state the long-standing struggle for a genuine democracy has been reduced to.

When these lines appear, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) faithful will have flocked to Garhi Khuda Bakhsh to commemorate Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in 2007 after she returned from self-imposed exile. Unfortunately, the closure of this dastardly case has suffered the same fate as all other similar conspiracies in the past. The real culprits, including General Pervez Musharraf (retd) are still beyond the reach of the law or justice. The case is still pending 14 years after the event. If a former prime minister’s murder case can suffer this kind of delay, what hope for justice for ordinary mortals? With her untimely death, Benazir Bhutto’s passing reflected the death of hope in our hearts, our longing for at least a civilised, democratic state and society.

With a heavy heart full of sorrow for the state of our beloved country, ‘Happy’ New Year.

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Copyright Business Recorder, 2021