Letting loose?

Never a lull moment when a pandemic is raging on! There has been a considerable letup in Covid-19 infections from the third wave. But a volcano doesn't just suddenly cease eruption. With most restrictions already lifted and the public largely disregarding masking and social distancing SOP’s, the public health officials have started warning that another wave of infections is around the corner.

The basic indicator of daily case counts has been rising, with the total number of cases standing at 963,660 as of July 5. On a seven-day basis, the number of new cases reported in the week ended July 5 was 8,003, a jump of 23 percent compared to the number of new cases reported in previous week ended June 28. On a fortnightly basis, the number of new cases reported in the 14-day period ended July 5 was 14,485, an increase of 8 percent relative to new cases reported in the 14-day period ended June 21.

Those averages, as well as the share of Covid-19 tests that turn out positive, have started going up in the month of July after witnessing significant declines earlier in all of June and most of May. July is likely to further turn up the heat, considering there will be Eid-ul-Azha-related increase in public interactions in the markets and among households. Then there is the risk of tourism-related spread of Covid-19, given July (and August) are the busiest months when it comes to Pakistanis going up country for recreation.

The situation on the vaccination front is improving, but there is still a long road ahead to immunizing 120 million eligible adult Pakistanis. Latest data show that as of July 5, about 3.4 million eligible adults had been fully-vaccinated against Covid-19, whereas 14 million were partially-vaccinated. This would translate into 3 percent of eligible adults fully vaccinated and 12 percent of eligible adults who are halfway there.

The vaccination drive needs to be strengthened. Currently, the number of daily doses administered is roughly 4 lacs. At this pace, it will take another one and a half years (not before January 2023) to fully vaccinate every eligible individual. Scientists have been raising alarms that if a largely-unvaccinated population continues to take virus lightly, it becomes a breeding ground for deadly new variants.

By increasing the number of vaccinators and ramping up vaccine supplies at existing locations, the daily vaccination rate can be significantly enhanced, with favorable consequences for the lead time to full immunization. Of course, vaccine hesitancy will create challenges in coming months and it needs to be taken head on. But currently, vaccination pace is dealing with supply-side challenges, not demand-side issues.

Considering that mass immunity is woefully absent in Pakistan, the officials at the NCOC will do well to put in place certain restrictions at this point, if a fourth wave is to be avoided. The public at large may not like a return of certain high-impact restrictions, but the sole purpose of mandating non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) at personal, community, workplace and marketplace levels is to save people’s health and lives by reducing the spread and the intensity of the virus.

The immediate priorities must be to avoid another prolonged Covid wave through strict enforcement of NPIs and to level up the vaccination campaign. There is incentive for the decision-makers in the government to act tough on the pandemic now and not let a fourth wave run amok. After all, an intensified Covid resurgence can pose serious threat to the government’s hopes of posting strong GDP growth in FY22 and hence its chances to fight its coming electoral battles with a strong hand.