It is almost the first anniversary of the first lockdown in Pakistan – and various kinds are once again being implemented across the country. The overall positivity rate indicates the beginning of yet another wave. Recall that the second wave peaked at around 9 percent, but the flattening of the curve was not as sustained as witnessed during the first wave.
The share of positive cases to tests is now inching towards 6 percent – which is only a fraction of the peak seen in the first wave and offers a false sense of comfort. Any spread beyond 5 percent for over a week is what the World Health Organization (WHO) categorizes as “out-of-control” – and there should be no mistakes made to term it otherwise.
Some parts of the country are already witnessing double digit positivity rate and have already been put under some forms of restricted movement. Talking of movement, Pakistanis have more than made up for the last year’s missed opportunities – as the crude Google Mobility data suggests. The overall movement has surpassed the pre-Covid days, and the visits to supermarkets, retail, and public transport have all surged by well over 20 percent since the start of 2021. As crude as the Mobility data maybe, it should not take a rocket scientist to place the finger on why the spread remains high.
But the vaccines fears are high, and that should be a comfort for few nerves. It is another thing that the government has so far inexplicably failed to bring the vaccination data in public domain (if it is keeping track). There is very little one can infer from outdates and sporadic data on the vaccination drive which started last month. One wonders what has been keeping the government from doing a job as basic as sharing data, when in fact the data related to testing and cases, has been a rich one for over a year.
There is no evidence-based analysis that could be carried out on the vaccination front at the moment. All you have is hearsay, and that does not show a good picture. Anecdote suggests vaccinating the citizens would be a herculean task, and the real problem may not be the availability of the vaccine itself, but the actual demand for the same.
For a country that already sits among the top few where Covid is seen as a hoax (a recent Gallup survey puts the number at 46%), and the reaction to it as hysteric – convincing people to get vaccinated is easier said than done. Mind you, the aversion to get vaccinated is not specific to Pakistan, as various stories of side effects have led to refusals in many countries. Add Pakistanis’ general attitude towards the existence and seriousness of the virus itself to the equation, and you will see why the vaccination drive appears a long bumpy road.
Whatsapp forwards do the rest, as the side effect stories are multiplied to no limit and then comes the Made in India vaccines, which have given birth to a whole new set of conspiracy theories. Behavioral studies may suggest Pakistan as a society is overprotective of the elderly and would rather not risk them to a vaccine that even has the slightest chance of going wrong. Could the government instead alter its strategy and also include the young population, which may lead to the leap of faith that is required for a meaningful number to get the vaccine? This is all conjecture at the moment, but in the absence of updated data, that is all you get.
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