Russian rouble recovers after sell-off led by sanction risk

MOSCOW: The Russian rouble opened stronger on Tuesday, heading away from the 74 mark to the US dollar, as oil prices inched upwards and emerging market currencies clawed back ground as the greenback retreated from a near one-month high.

Risk of sanctions linked to the arrest of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny upon his return to Russia for the first time since being poisoned last summer hit the rouble on Monday, with the currency shedding 1% at one point before paring some losses.

At 0743 GMT, the rouble was 0.5% stronger against the dollar at 73.65 and had gained 0.4% to trade at 89.09 versus the euro.

The rouble could hold around the 74 mark to the dollar, provided there is no further escalation of political tensions, Sberbank CIB said in a note, warning the unit could come under pressure later in the day when markets open in the United States.

US President-elect Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan now appears priced in and the COVID-19 pandemic continues to worsen, said BCS Global Markets.

"For Russia, with geopolitical risks rising due to Navalny's detention, this backdrop amplifies concerns that a correction may be on the horizon."

The rouble no longer has support from foreign currency sales after the finance ministry switched to a buying regime starting on Jan. 15, planning to sell 7.1 billion roubles ($96.3 million) worth of forex a day over the next month.

The central bank, which reports interventions with a two-day lag, will publish the total settlement figure for Jan. 15 and Jan. 18 on Wednesday, as the US market was closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday.

Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was up 0.9% at $55.26 a barrel, pushing Russian stock indexes higher.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was up 1.1% to 1,490.4 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 0.3% higher at 3,483.5 points.