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UK GAS-Prices rise on colder weather forecasts

  • The British gas system was over-supplied by 12.4 million cubic metres (mcm) on Monday morning, with demand forecast at 245.5 mcm and flows at 257.9 mcm/day, National Grid data showed.
Published November 23, 2020

British gas prices rose on Monday morning supported by colder weather forecasts from mid-week.

December gas on the NBP rose 2.70 pence to 37.80 pence per therm by 0955 GMT.

The weekend gas contract rose 3.60 pence to 37.00 pence per therm.

"We expect upside in NBP prices today with the main driver being weather outlook which adjusted towards colder over the weekend," analysts at Refinitiv said in a daily report.

Temperatures were now expected to drop below the seasonal normal from the middle of this week, they added.

Although the colder weather may not last too long, the mild and windy weather that had weighed on gas and power prices lately was over now, said a trader.

For Tuesday, forecasts still showed mild temperatures, however, curbing the need for heating, with local distribution zone demand forecast 11 mcm/day lower for Tuesday at 175 million cubic metres (mcm) on Tuesday, Refinitiv's analyst added.

The day-ahead contract had yet to trade.

The British gas system was over-supplied by 12.4 million cubic metres (mcm) on Monday morning, with demand forecast at 245.5 mcm and flows at 257.9 mcm/day, National Grid data showed.

Send-out of liquefied natural gas would remain high as well, especially from the Dragon terminal where four new cargoes were expected this week, Refinitiv's analyst said.

Peak wind generation is forecast at 12.4 gigawatts (GW) on Monday and 11.7 GW on Tuesday, out of total metered capacity of around 18 GW, Elexon data showed.

The December price on the Dutch TTF hub was 0.68 euro higher at 13.63 euros per megawatt hour.

Dutch day-ahead gas was up 0.85 euros at 13.45 euros per megawatt hour.

The benchmark Dec-20 EU carbon contract was up 0.51 euro at 27.25 euros a tonne.

GAS

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