The sustainable development goals

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations are a successor to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The latter covered the period 2000 to 2015 while the former are for the period 2015 to 2030.

The MDGs and SDGs both focus on achievement of a relatively high rate of economic growth which is inclusive in character and reduces poverty and hunger, improves health and education of children, prevents epidemics, improves the status of women and so on.

The performance of developing countries on the MDGs was mixed. Global poverty was reduced by half as per target. However, the employment target of decent work for all was missed in a big way. There was only a small decline in the percentage of underweight children. Gender inequality persists today both in education and in the labor market. Environmental conditions have, in fact, deteriorated globally.

Perhaps one of the biggest factors affecting performance of developing countries was the lack of success of the global partnership for development. The developed countries had made a commitment for providing assistance of 0.7 percent of their respective GDP to support attainment of the MDGs. The actual flow turned out to be much lower at 0.3 percent of the GDP.

Pakistan's performance on the MDGs was relatively poor. This has been attributed to the war on terror and the high and growing incidence of power outages which affected the process of growth. Consequently, only 9 out of the 35 MDG targets were achieved. Pakistan's performance turned out to be worst among South Asian countries.

Despite the apparent limited success of the MDGs, the SDGs are even more ambitious in character. The number of goals has been expanded from eight to seventeen. The listing of these goals is given in the table 1 below. Each goal has a number of targets. Altogether, there are as many as 169 targets.

Five years have elapsed since the setting of the SDGs. Therefore, an initial review of Pakistan's performance on the SDGs would be appropriate. The global SDGs 2020 Report has recently been released. This report has been prepared by a group of American economists, led by Geoffrey Sachs. Therefore, it is not an official UN report.

However, the report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of individual countries. Like in the MDGs, Pakistan continues to make only limited progress on the SDGs. Overall, Pakistan receives a performance score of 56 out of 100. It is ranked in performance as 134th out of 166 countries. It also has the lowest ranking among South Asian countries, excluding Afghanistan.

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Table 1: Sustainable Development Goals
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1.    No Poverty                        2.    No Hunger
3.    Good Health                       4.    Quality Education
5.    Gender Equality                   6.    Clean Water and Sanitation
7.    Renewable Energy                  8.    Good jobs and Economic Growth
9.    Innovation and Infrastructure     10.   Reduced Inequalities
11.   Sustainable Cities                12.   Responsible Consumption
13.   Climate Action                    14.   Life below Water
15.   Life on Land                      16.   Peace and Justice
17.   Partnerships for the Goals
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The SDGs 2020 Report highlights that Pakistan is on track in only the two goals of reducing poverty (Goal 1) and climate action (Goal 13). There is some moderate improvement in the three goals of health (Goal 3), clean water (Goal 6) and peace and justice (Goal 16). There was no available data on two goals. Overall, Pakistan is performing poorly on ten out of the seventeen goals, including especially quality education (Goal 4), gender equality (Goal 5), renewable energy (Goal 7) and good jobs and economic growth (Goal 8).

The pandemic, COVID-19, will make it even more difficult for Pakistan and other countries to achieve the SDGs. For example, Pakistan made very good progress in reducing poverty between 2015 and 2018. Given an almost 3 percent annual growth in real capita income and relatively stable food prices, the incidence of poverty is estimated to have come down from 39 percent in 2015 to 31 percent in 2018. However, the subsequent plummeting of the GDP growth, the relatively high inflation in food prices and the spread of COVID-19 since March 2020, have caused the level of poverty to rise sharply to 41 percent of the population.

Therefore, there is need now for the country to evaluate its policy and approach towards the SDGs. Recently, the Punjab Economic Research Institute (PERI), under my technical guidance, has prepared a growth strategy for achieving the SDGs in Pakistan.

Estimates of the resources required are as follows:

(i) Rise in the national tax-to-GDP ratio from 11.5 percent in 2019-20 to 14.5 percent by 2024-25 and to 17 percent by 2029-30.

(ii) Increase in the level of private investment from 9 percent of the GDP currently to 12 percent by 2024-25 and to 15 percent by 2029-30.

(iii) Enhancement in the level of development spending by the Federal and Provincial Governments combined from 3 percent of the GDP to 6 percent by 2029-30.

(iv) Shift in the development priorities in the Federal PSDP from highways to water resources and power distribution. Simultaneously, the Provinces will need to double their share of development expenditure on social sectors and on productive sectors, especially agriculture.

(v) Currently, the spending on social services, especially health and education, and social protection is 4.5 percent of the GDP. This will have to be enhanced to 6.5 percent of the GDP by 2024-25 and to 8 percent of the GDP by 2029-30.

(vi) Achievement of GDP growth of 6 percent by 2024-25 and of 7 percent by 2029-30.

The inevitable conclusion is that the achievement of these financing and growth targets is well beyond the realms of possibility.

Therefore, what is the recommended approach towards the SDGs? The first is clear prioritization. 17 Goals are too ambitious and diverse in nature. Perhaps the primary goal should be Goal 1 on poverty. This will imply that emphasis will have to be placed on goals which help in achievement of Goal 1. These include Goal 4 on education, Goal 5 on gender equality, Goal 7 on renewable energy, Goal 8 on good jobs, Goal 9 on innovation and infrastructure and Goal 10 on reduced inequalities. Achievement of the primary goal of poverty reduction will facilitate the achievement of Goal 2 on hunger and Goal 5 on health.

Further, there is need also for localization of the SDGs. This implies that the individual targets may be fixed at more realistic levels for 2029-30. The Goal 1 on poverty has the key target of poverty reduction by half by 2030 from the level of poverty in 2015.

The base year level of poverty in 2015 was 39 percent of the population. As such, the implied SDG target for 2030 for Pakistan is 19.5 percent. However, five years have already been lost, especially after COVID-19, and we stand currently with the level of poverty at 41 percent. If the rate of reduction is scaled down to about 1.5 percentage points annually then Pakistan can bring down the incidence of poverty to 26 percent by 2030. This will still require an average of 5.5 percent GDP growth over the next ten years and efforts at reducing income inequality and keeping food prices relatively stable while more than doubling in real terms the outlay on social protection.

The good news is that the national Parliament of Pakistan is taking keen interest in increasing public awareness of the SDGs and focusing on achievement of the SDGs while developing a score card on the annual progress in different goals and targets. This was not the case with the earlier MDGs. There is now a standing Task Force on the SDGs of 52 MNAs and Senators.

The Task Force will need to coordinate efforts with the Provincial Assemblies as a number of goals are primarily within the domain of the Provincial Governments. Task Forces on the SDGs have also been constituted in each Provincial Assembly.

The Federal Government has also set up a SDGs Co-ordination Unit in the Planning Commission. Similarly, SDG units have been established in the Provincial Planning Departments. Efforts are being to set up a benchmark database and a monitoring system at a regionally disaggregated level to the extent possible.

There is need for the National Economic Council (NEC) to look at the proposed strategy for achieving the key SDGs and for assessment of the rate of progress on the targets. The Economic Affairs division must focus on mobilizing more foreign assistance on the SDGs to Pakistan.

Overall, while the SDGs may seem overly ambitious in the current context, especially after COVID-19, they provide a very useful framework for planning. They will also ensure that the focus will always be only on improving the lives of the people.

(The writer is Professor Emeritus at BNU and former Federal Minister)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020